Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed to flat with the exception being the Dow Industrials, which rose Wednesday, September 19th. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 look like they already topped, completing Rising Bearish Wedges. The Industrials are completing a Rising Bearish Wedge from July 2018, which is why they are rallying now while the other major indices are flat. This Rising Wedge looks close to completion. We did get a new Buy signal in our Blue Chip Purchasing Power Indicator Wednesday, however if this Wedge is finishing now, we could get a whipsaw new Sell signal once stocks begin their next slide. The Wedge patterns are warning a decline of 10 percent at least is possible. The NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line is diverging Bearishly with Blue Chip stocks at this time. That is often a harbinger of a developing major top.
The stock market generated its 14th Hindenburg Omen observation Wednesday for the official H.O. from August 14th. It has now generated 12 daily H.O. observations in a row, an unprecedented development. This is a warning from the stock market that a black swan event could trigger a plunge.
The HUI key trend-finder indicators generated a new Buy signal Wednesday, as the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator moved to a new Buy signal, joining the HUI 30 day Stochastic. This increases the odds that a new Bull market is starting for precious metals and Mining stocks.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 17th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, September 19th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 31st, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 23rd, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Wednesday, September 19th, rising 0 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 16, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 378 Wednesday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 371, telling us Wednesday’s move in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, September 13th, and remains there Wednesday, September 19th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose Wednesday. They generated a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal September 18th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Wednesday, September 19th, Demand Power rose 6 to 400 while Supply Pressure fell 6 to 400, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was strong.
DJIA PPI Rose 1 to + 87.78, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow 76.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 66.11 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 83.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 76.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Flat at Positive + 16, On a Buy
Demand Power Flat at 378, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 371 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 55.92
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1930.34
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 0.71, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 60.7 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 74 New Lows 100
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sideways signal Tuesday, September 4th, 2018, and remain there September 19th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on September 17th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered aSell signal on September 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Monday, September 17th and remains there September 19th. On Wednesday September 19th, Demand Power fell 1 to 411, while Supply Pressure was flat at 415, telling us Wednesday’s decline was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal September 11th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to positive + 4.6 on Wednesday, September 19th.
NDX PPI Flat at + 267.19 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 54.29 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 44.05 Slow 45.48 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 4.6 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 411, Supply Pressure Flat at 415 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 191.79 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 162.10 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at + 156.47, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 55.00, Slow 23.33 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Up 6 to 400; Supply Pressure Fell 6 to 400, Neutral