Today’s Market Comments:
Blue Chips fell Tuesday, September 25th, however the internals were weak, and damage was done to the potential for a continuation of the uptrend. Decliners exceeded advancing issues. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Sideways signal from a Buy as both the 30 day and 14 day stochastics moved to a Sell. Techs and small caps rose slightly. The market generated the 17th Hindenburg Omen observation for the official H.O. from August 14th. This is an extraordinary situation warning that the stock market is in a fragile condition at this time. Tomorrow the Fed will announce its latest short-term interest rate policy decision, probably raising short term interest rates again.
Markets sit at a high probability trend turn cycle point given the Fibonacci Cluster turn window and Phi mate turn date we discussed in this past weekend’s report.
Silver rose Tuesday, Gold and Miners were flat Tuesday.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 25th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, September 25th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, September 25th, falling 5 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 12, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 1 to 382 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 379, telling us Tuesday’s decline in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, September 13th, and remains there Tuesday, September 25th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Silver rose, Gold and Miners were fl at Tuesday. They generated a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal September 18th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Tuesday, September 25th, Demand Power rose 2 to 407 while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 399, telling us Tuesday’s HUI rise was mild.
DJIA PPI fell 1 to 89.82, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 84.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 80.00 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 73.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 63.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 30.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 5 to Positive + 12, On a Buy
Demand Power fell 1 to 382, Supply Pressure Up 2 to 379 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 72.66
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1792.78
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 4.1, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -13.8 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 78 New Lows 149
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there September 25th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there September 25th. On Tuesday September 25th, Demand Power was flat at 416, while Supply Pressure was flat at 414, telling us Tuesday’s rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 9.8 on Tuesday, September 25th.
NDX PPI Rose 1 to + 273.02 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 56.43 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 54.76 Slow 57.86 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 9.8 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Flat at 416, Supply Pressure Flat at 414 Neutral
RUT PPI Flat at 192.65 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 67.0 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at + 156.25, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 65.00, Slow 41.11 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Up 2 to 407; Supply Pressure fell 3 to 399, Neutral