Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose Monday, October 1st, but gave up about half the gains from their intraday highs. Some weird internals Monday. New NYSE Lows were the highest they have been since June 28th, 2018, with the NYSE up for the day, and up significantly from June 28th. NYSE Decliners exceeded Advancing issues almost 3 to 2 on the NYSE rally. Unusual. Blue Chips ended higher, while small caps fell sharply, the Russell 2000 down 23 points. Our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell, while the Blue Chip Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy. Lots of Bearish divergences all over the place, as shown in our weekend report.
The stock market generated its 18th Hindenburg Omen observation since August, telling us the stock market sits in a fragile condition at this time. Tomorrow was the latest scheduled Phi Mate turn date, which could be pointing to a top within a week or so
Gold and Silver fell slightly Monday, while Mining stocks were flat, working through what may be the final small degree wave 5-down move to put in a bottom.
The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that ‘the head of the IMFInternational Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde is raising alarm bells about the health of the global economy, saying international growth may have plateaued.
“For most countries, it has become more difficult to deliver on the promise of greater prosperity, because the global economic weather is beginning to change,” Ms. Lagarde said in a speech in Washington on Monday.
Ms. Lagarde said the IMF’s official economic forecasts, which will be released next week, have “become less bright” and that factors identified as merely risks earlier in the year have begun to materialize.’
This is interesting as our Global stock market charts we reported in our latest International Weekend report are saying the same thing, that international stock markets, a reflection of the economies of nations around the world, are forecasting a significant plunge, and economic slowdown.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 25th, 2018 and remain there Monday, October 1st. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Monday, October 1st, flat at (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 13, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 1 to 377 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 381, telling us Monday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Exit Long Signal September 26th, and remains there Monday, October 1st, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Silver and Gold fell slightly and Mi ners were flat Monday. They generated a Sideways signal Friday, September 28th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal September 28th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Monday, October 1st, Demand Power fell 1 to 401 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 406, telling us Monday’s HUI move was weak.
DJIA PPI rose 1 to 90.50, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 72.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 64.44 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 73.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Flat at Positive + 13, On a Buy
Demand Power fell 1 to 377, Supply Pressure up 1 to 381 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 75.12
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1486.12
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 3.06, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -99.4 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 92 New Lows 156
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there October 1st, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there October 1st. On Monday October 1st, Demand Power fell 2 to 412, while Supply Pressure flat at 409, telling us Monday’s rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 15.0 on Monday, October 1st.
NDX PPI Rose 1 to + 278.37 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 72.00 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 64.44 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 15.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 412, Supply Pressure Flat at 409 Neutral
RUT PPI Fell 5 to 184.41 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 140.1 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at + 153.68, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 43.89 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 401; Supply Pressure fell 1 to 406, Neutral