Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed to flat Wednesday, September 12th. They generated a 9th Hindenburg Omen observation as part of the official August H.O., and the 7th consecutive day the market has generated an observation. That is extraordinary. I cannot find another time this many occurred in a row. This is warning that the stock market remains in a precarious condition at this time, subject to a sharp sell-off should a trigger event occur. Our Blue Chip, Tech and small cap Purchasing Power Indicators remain on Sell signals Wednesday.
Perhaps one of the more interesting developments in the market Wednesday was the strong buying that occurred in Mining Stocks on strong volume. They are long overdue for a significant rebound. The corrective decline from 2016 is nearly complete, the pattern tells us that. We show charts in tonight’s newsletter. Once we get a new Buy signal in our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator and our HUI 30 day Stochastic, we will have confidence that the corrective wave 2-down is complete and the next Bull market is starting.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal September 6th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, September 12th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, September 6th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 31st, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 23rd, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Wednesday, September 12th, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 10, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 375 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 369, telling us Wednesday’s rise in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Exit Long Signal Friday, September 7th, and remains there Wednesday, September 12th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose Wednesday. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Wednesday, September 12th, Demand Power rose 9 to 385 while Supply Pressure fell 6 to 418, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was strong with short-covering helping boost prices.
DJIA PPI Flat at + 84.54, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 68.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.33 Slow 58.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 73.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 63.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 2 to Positive 10, On a Buy
Demand Power Flat at 375, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 369 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative -51.61
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2141.83
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 1.32, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -168.8 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 96 New Lows 79
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Tuesday, September 4th, 2018, and remain there September 12th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on September 5th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on September 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Long positions signal Thursday, September 6th and remains there September 12th. On Wednesday September 12th, Demand Power fell 1 to 411, while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 412, telling us Wednesday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal September 11th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative – 7.2 on Wednesday, September 12th.
NDX PPI Fell 1 to + 265.33 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 59.52 Slow 55.95 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 47.62 Slow 46.67 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 7.2 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 411, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 412 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at + 194.48 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 115.7 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 4 to + 152.86, on a Sell, Needs 154.78 for a new Buy.
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 11.67 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Rose 9 to 385; Supply Pressure Fell 6 to 418, Sell