Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks Fell Tuesday, September 4th, the Industrials dropping hard early, then recovering most of the losses by the close. Volume improved. Decliners exceeded advancing issues. The decline Monday resulted in a third Hindenburg Omen observation for the Official H.O. on the close from August. This tells us the stock market sits at a vulnerable position at this time. We would not be surprised to see a strong sell-off over the coming weeks. The question will be, is the selling a correction within large degree wave v-up from August 2015, or is this it, the final top for the Bull markets from 2015 and 2009. We will keep careful watch on our intermediate term and long term indicators for guidance. Our Purchasing Power Indicator remains on Buy signals for Blue Chips, techs and small caps tonight.
Precious Metals and Mining stocks are finishing the final subwave decline to complete a large corrective pattern from 2016’s top. This decline should be complete very soon. Once finished, a powerful and lengthy Bull market will begin. We show updated charts in tonight’s newsletter. In those charts, it is evident that these markets are finishing a fifth wave down. That means a bottom and strong subsequent rally is not far off. This correction from 2016 has tried the patience of Gold Bugs, but it is nearing its conclusion. For those who fear manipulation, be aware that the price pattern and wave mapping looks quite normal and is not outlier from manipulation. Once our HUI key trend-finder indicators move to new Buy signals we will have confidence the next Bull market has started. Our 30 day HUI stochastic Fast measure actually improved on Tuesday’s decline.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal August 17th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, September 4th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 17th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 31st, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 23rd, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, September 4th, falling 8 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 15, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 3 to 380 Tuesday while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 364, telling us Tuesday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, August 17th, and remains there Tuesday, September 4th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners fell Tuesday . They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, September 4th, Demand Power fell 3 to 379 while Supply Pressure rose 7 to 429, telling us Tuesday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI Fell 1 to + 86.73, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 75.33 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 77.78 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 66.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 36.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 23.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 8 to Positive + 15, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 3 to 380, Supply Pressure Up 3 to 364 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative -36.76
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2617.07
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 5.07, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 81.5 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 126 New Lows 93
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sideways signal Tuesday, September 4th, 2018, and remain there September 4th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 22nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on September 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Wednesday, August 29th and remains there September 4th. On Tuesday September 4th, Demand Power fell 1 to 417, while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 400, telling us Tuesday’s decline was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 16.8 on Tuesday, September 4th.
NDX PPI Fell 3 to + 282.00 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.71 Slow 63.57 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.10 Slow 73.81 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 16.8 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 417, Supply Pressure Up 3 to 400 Buy
RUT PPI Fell 2 to + 198.53 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 121.8 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 4 to 150.31, on a Sell, Needs 156.31 for a new Buy.
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 15.00, Slow 8.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 379; Supply Pressure Up 7 to 429, Sell