Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks rocketed higher Wednesday, November 28th, the day after our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Buy signal. The rally moved our Blue Chip and NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicators to new Buy signals. The rally was helped by significant short-covering, but was strong on its own internals as well. From a mapping perspective, the size of this rally means that large degree wave 2-up, which is correcting the October plunge, is not complete yet. It means the rally into the November 8th top was subwave {a} up of 2, and the November plunge was subwave {b} down of 2. This explosive rally the past few days is the start of subwave {c} up of 2-up. This rally could take stocks above the November 8th highs. This may be this year’s “Santa Rally.” Once wave 2-up completes, a powerful wave3-down move should follow.

 

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that New Home Sales for October fell 8.9 percent, and were 12 percent below a year ago. Housing is in the tank. Fed Chairman Powell jawboned a slightly less hawkish stance Wednesday, which got markets excited that he may not be insane. Precious Metals and Mining stocks rose on Wednesday. 

 

We update charts in tonight’s report.  

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal November 27th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, November 28th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Monday, November 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on November 12th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on November 20th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Wednesday, November 28th, rising 9 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -14. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power rose 16 to 419 Wednesday while Supply Pressure fell 10 to 409, telling us Wednesday’s rise in Blue Chips was powerful with significant short-covering. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal November 28th, and remains there Wednesday, November 28th, 2018. The previous Sell signal identified the start of the October plunge.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners rose Wednesday. They generated a Sideways signal Friday, November 16th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Wednesday, November 28th, Demand Power rose 8 to 397 while Supply Pressure fell 7 to 418, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was strong.

DJIA PPI rose 17 to 28.21, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 52.00 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 80.00 Slow 28.89 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 76.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 90.00

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 96.67

Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 9 to Negative -14, On a Sell

Demand Power Up 16 to 419, Supply Pressure Fell 10 to 409 Buy

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Positive + 90.43

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 367.82

Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 11.2, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 44.8 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 40 New Lows 205

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Wednesday, November 28th, 2018, and remain there November 28th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 26th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 26th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 28th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Wednesday, November 28th and remains there November 28th. On Wednesday November 28th, Demand Power rose 15 to 458, while Supply Pressure fell 8 to 436, telling us the rise was powerful with short covering half the buying.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to + 16.8 on Wednesday, November 28th.

 

NDX PPI Up 26 to 170.40 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 65.48 Slow 45.95 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 77.38 Slow 40.00 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 16.8 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Up 15 to 458, Supply Pressure Fell 8 to 436 Buy

 

RUT PPI Rose 12 to 150.32 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 70.40 On a Sell

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal October 25th, 2018.

HUI PPI Up 3 to + 165.51, on a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00, Slow 31.11 on a Sell

HUI Demand Power Up 8 to 397; Supply Pressure Fell 7 to 418, Sell