I don’t claim to know if the Chinese economy is heading for a slowdown or is in a slowdown as Hedgeeye seems to imply.
Getting much relevant data out of China has always been specious. I think the Chinese economy is extremely hard to measure & is growing slower on the whole than China reports – this has been going on for years if I’m correct
We do know that Foreigners are buying more and more Chinese stocks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-13/china-s-msci-debut-is-about-to-put-new-stocks-in-your-pension
We know that the China PMI was neutral – either side of 50 from late 2011 to early 2016 & has shown greater expansion rate the past 2 years
We know that Copper has been a good barometer of economic activity in China & it rallied strongly in 2016-2017 & has remained near its highs above $3 in a 9 month trading range…good sign
He talks about other Asian stock markets and economies heading down? Hong Kong just hit a new record high and most stock markets are doing well. If Trade Deal happens there could be an acceleration. At the same time China is trying to control bubbles & like the US it’s restraining Monetary Policy – the US has had a negative monetary policy for almost 4 years and we are still going up…
While the Shanghai Composite has been sideways to higher the past few years, I don’t think it’s that important of an index with so many tiny losing companies & that index can by very manipulated: the more important index is below & has appreciated nicely along with other stock markets
China should always be watched with caution given the dictatorship and its size, but I don’t see any signs of a big slowdown
Brian Sly and Company, Inc.