Good morning : todays DMS is indicated bearish as measured by DTE- and calculated by DSI- todays DMP=1.01/1.18 *pretty neutral #’s-
So, were not talking about some sort of apocalyptic scenario or the start of a S/T bear MKT- were just communicating that from a quantitative technical perspective, the SPX/MKT is trading within the late stage of an intermediate / minor TIME cycle AND its price location relative to TIME indicates limited follow though expectation without some sort of consolidation in price / through TIME- * if your buying MKT here , you’re really late to the party!
Now it could be that we are wrong… And that the collective wisdom of the MKT trumps our models and were just going to see continued slow ‘grind’ higher through TIME into the next set of signals or the next level of price resistance (2820)-
Certainly , many of the TOP names have come In some and the SMH- took a good hit last week and could follow through some more this week…
We just don’t see a need to BUY aggressively here given the position of the SPX/MKT-
With that said, we are VERY cautious here on the MKT –and would look for a rest before moving $$ into he MKT on a broad basis. Many names have topped last week and the MKT is trading within an overbought condition and Is likely to snap back some time over the next several days/week-
Here is the latest VOL cycle metrics and where we are in the cycle-