Exec Spec update and historical comments.
He continues to have a very good record on his market and economic calls.
04-12-19 Fortunately we added Disney to the portfolio earlier this week. The bold new streaming service plan will generate reduced earnings over the next year, but higher revenue and longer term competitiveness. The cloud based, streaming subscription based economy requires sacrificing earnings in favor of market share and revenue growth or ARG (accelerating revenue growth). : We suspect other Netflix and Disney want-to be’s based upon subscriptions like Drop Box and Spotify will eventually spurt higher after their long consolidation phases are broken with a quarterly report showing ARG. : The stock market continues higher with very little pause. S&P 500 Index basis June appears due for 2920’s next week with 2940’s likely this month. S&P basis cash index is primed for the 2930 to 2950 area in coming weeks. Hopefully we will catch the end of this rally and position for our anticipated post China trade deal correction. The Sell the news event that may arrive in the next couple of months may not just be a time to hedge with inverse indices or raising cash, but rotating to emerging market and commodity based stocks.
04-10-19 This has been one of the top 15 week rallies in the stock market in history. Oil continues a pace the gains in stocks with Heating Oil & Gasoline breaking out today. While most have now joined our chorus expecting record highs soon and extreme consensus is always wrong, we think there is enough buying power to prevent any meaningful corrections near term. The modest surprise may be a strong overshoot of the 2018 highs in the S&P and Nasdaq, but we’ll assess when we test the highs. At the 2940 rerecord peak in the S&P 500 Index, it’s likely all sentiment measures will finally rise to overbought extremes. The low volatility hyper speed rally has kept many on the sidelines with excess cash, which may have been a factor keeping Bullish sentiment from reaching extreme levels.: Currently the most anticipated news event in history – a China Trade Deal – appears slated for announcement by late May or early June with a signing ceremony in June. Until the news arrives, stocks will maintain a strong bid under this market. The timing of record stock index highs and trade news will be a factor in our forecast.: We have been under invested throughout this rally that began during the quiet Christmas Holiday shut down period and surged continuously for 15 weeks without meaningful corrections. The post Trade Deal news correction will be the next inflection period to hedge long positions and prepare for a computer stop loss panic phase short term to buy more equities longer term.
04-05-19 Look for our forecast of record highs this summer to arrive in April.
03-14-19 Stay with trend & use those 3 to 5% corrections for more additions.
03-12-19 While our forecasts for 2018 and early 2019 were vindicated, we would have to say that we are surprised by the strength in March. The Global economy and more importantly the US is weakening, but thus far it’s been mostly discounted and stock values are synced with expectations of the better 2nd & 3rd quarter growth expectations.
03-09-19 Long term picture remains positive. Market risk is still 3 to 5% intraday which was touched briefly on the 8th. We are impressed more anecdotally by the strength in most of the stocks in our favored list section that continue to outperform the market.
02-28-19 Still expecting record highs in all major indices by summer for longer term investors.
(more past track record forecast commentary below our Favorite stock list)
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-Model Portfolio Tracker:
2019 Open positions: new portfolio each calendar year
$100,000 Starting value 01-02-2019
$3,000 initial investment/stock
44% invested as of 04-12-19: Profit=$10,317 =+10.3% : vs SP=+18%
|Symbol||Name||Action||Qty||Entry Date||Entry Price||Last||Total Chg||Total %Chg||Total Profit|
|HACK||ISE Cyber Security ETF||Buy||74||4/10/2019||40.25||41.06||0.81||2.01%||59.94|
|DIS||Walt Disney Company||Buy||26||4/9/2019||115.3||130.06||14.76||12.80%||383.76|
|VEEV||Veeva Systems Inc||Buy||25||3/13/2019||119.72||134.75||15.03||12.55%||375.75|
|LOGI||Logitech Int S.A.||Buy||80||1/23/2019||35.45||41.54||6.09||17.18%||487.2|
|MMSI||Merit Medical Sys||Buy||59||1/6/2019||51.1||62.35||11.25||22.02%||663.75|
|PANW||Palo Alto Networks Inc||Buy||16||1/4/2019||182.5||244.66||62.16||34.06%||994.56|
|FIVE||Five Below Inc||Buy||28||1/4/2019||105||134.97||29.97||28.54%||839.16|
|DATA||Tableau Software Inc Cl A||Buy||25||1/4/2019||121||124||3||2.48%||75|
|COUP||Coupa Software Inc||Buy||49||1/4/2019||61||96.59||35.59||58.34%||1743.91|
Favored stocks Buy list (*=currently in strong momentum mode near highs): Most on our favs list today are in strong up-trends near 4 month highs: Buy on 2%+ dips in SP 500 Index:
*ACN Accenture : AMED Amedisys : AMZN Amazon : *CDW Corp : *COUP Coupa Software: *CRL Charles River : CRM Salesforece : *CSCO Cisco : *CYBR Cyberark :DATA Tableau Software : DBX Drop Box : *DELL : *DIS Disney : DOCU Docusign : ETSY : *FIVE Five Below : FSCT Forescout Tech : *GPN Global Payments : HCA Healthcare Hldgs’ : HUBS Hubspot : *IRDM Iridium : JNJ Johnson&Johnson : INTU Intuit : *MA Mastercard : MDB MongoDB : MMSI Merit Medical : *MSFT Microsoft : *MSI Motorola Solutions: NEWR New Relic : NOMD Nomad Foods : *NOW Service Now : *OKTA : *OLLI Ollies : PANW Palo Alto : PFPT Proofpoint : *PLD Prologis : *PYPL PayPal : *SBAC SBA Communications : *SBUX Starbucks : *SHOP Shopify : SPOT Spotify:SPLK Splunk : *TEAM Atlassian : TWLO Twilio : *V Visa: VZ Verizon : *VMW VMWare : *VEEV Veeva :WM Waste Mgmt’ : *WDAY Workday : *WP World Pay : *YUM : *ZBRA Zebra Tech’ : *ZS Zscaler : ZUO Zuora
US Indexes – ETF’s: SPY : QQQ : XLK : HACK= Cyber security : XHE=Healthcare : FINX=Fintech : IHF : IHI : XLV : OLD : MOAT
Current commodity funds ETN’s or ETF’s in long term Buy zones 4th Qtr’ 2018: Aussie$=FXA : Silver=SLV : Gold=IAU : Soybeans=SOYB :
::: When using Stock Index Short hedges:=SH for SPY inverse : DOG for DJIA inverse : PSQ for QQQ inverse
(continued highlights/track record from above of past forecast updates correctly foretelling market action)
02-25-19 SP reached our 2800 – 2832 intermediate topping zone today after Trump announced Sunday he would suspend the new China tariff deadline. Stocks then pulled back from the SP 2814 highs on Trumps tweets drove Oil prices down. As mentioned in our latest “In The News” section interview the other week, a new Trade Deal framework might be the classic Buy the Rumor Sell the News of an agreement. If Oil moves to new 2019 highs then stocks may start move to new 2019 highs again.
02-15-19 Our bias has remained to the upside with stock indices just 5% from all time highs. Max potential in Feb’ in 2830’s. Next time indices fall more than 2% will quickly increase odds of our first meaningful correction of the year.: Oil is tethered to stocks & we remain long looking for $56.50 area next week before a pullback and >$60 eventually.
02-12-19 Well our suspicion of minimal downside risk before March 1st was realized today as the ideal 3+% correction was only 2% and the SP did rise above the reversal level of 2730 hinting that this market has a floor of optimism over a trade deal and is unlikely to plunge.
02-07-19 … should the SP regain the 2730’s and Oil move back over $54, we would assume the correction phase is not ready to begin … significant downside risk before the March 1st trade deal deadline seems very unlikely
02-01-19 Stocks …longer term 2019 target zone remains Bullish in the 2900 to 3100 SP 500 Index, assuming no tariff war escalation.
01-30-19 Impressive news response syndrome continues. Market confidence of a China Trade deal grows each week & is a major tailwind that will continue into February until China or the US publicize roadblocks. March SP 2730’s to 2740’s is the next target zone. The Feb’ pullback we expected may be elusive or a much higher low than many had hoped for.
01-17-19 We have been expecting the obvious resistance in the low 2620’s SP to break .. No longer is this a market Selling Good News, but Buying Bad news.
01-14-19 Late January top short term should lead to a strong pullback into a Feb’ low where new buying is expected. Weak earnings & economy are “mostly” priced in. Short term trader Equity Call option buying indicates a ceiling on price with SP likely to stay under the low 2700’s in Jan’ & then fall into lower 2500’s in Feb’.
01-06-19 Further economic weakness is expected over the next few months when equity valuation risk should be mostly priced in. A test of record highs due this summer, assuming a positive trade deal in the 1st qtr’.
12-26-18 Strong short term bottom is likely in with the spike low early today (12-26-18). $VIX close over 36 Monday implies a low of some importance has arrived
12-18-18 With the sharp drop in China Trade proxies of Aussie$, Copper & Crude Oil today…a reversal lower in stocks before Christmas would not be a surprise.
12-17-18 New 2018 lows breaking multi-month support hints of capitulation. We remain with heavy cash levels
12-07-18 After 3 tests of the 10% correction lows since the Oct’ 3rd peak our old adage hints this 4th test has higher odds of busting to new lows – new 2018 lows, perhaps as much as the 17 to 20%correction levels from the peak basis Dow & SP. Need a VIX>35-50 for a stronger low. Now 73% in cash.
12-04-18 Mini panic underway …We are raising more cash … Need to await new oversold signals before putting cash back into stocks.
12-03-18 China sensitive Soybeans and Copper heading down all day is a sign the markets fear the China Trade truce will fail. If SP 500 Index 2760 & Dow 25,538 are tested or broken this week, then the Trade relief rally is on hold & stocks will continue to work even lower …
11-20-18 The Dow psychology is setting up quickly for a stock market … tradable December low despite more downgrades in 2019.
11-19-18 We are a net 39% long stocks … hopes of a Trade deal seem ripe for disappointment yet again.
10-18-18 Like the Jan’ – Feb’ correction, stocks…now heading back to the lows or new lows …
10-04-18 Our end of September newsletter warned of an October pullback as the mid-term election nears.
09-27-18 Medium term traders should use the lows of 09-26-18 as short term support below which a new short term leg down may accelerate.
08-04-18 Dow rally … to continue to new multi-month highs over the next 3 weeks … S&P 2900 to 2910 is the ideal target in August.
06-25-18 Trump will risk furthering a trade war …he doesn’t want a deal; he wants a weaker China & stronger USA.
05-10-18 … we should expect rhetoric that keeps Oil prices edging higher (>$70).
04-14-18 Oil has remained high as expected …We continue to like buying the dips into at least mid-May as Iranian talks heat up.
03-27-18 … we continue to favor Trump … pivoting to an aggressive focus on Iran (Higher Oil)
03-18-18 Use any new testing of 11 to 15% intraday correction level as new buying entry.
02-05-18 Look for an initial low this week.
02-03-18 For a couple of months we have discussed our forecast for the first real correction since Trump was elected is due during the 1st qtr’ 2018 earnings reporting period from late January to late February.
01-23-18 A several month pause into the spring looks likely.
11-14-17 Our current expectation remains that more serious corrections of 10% or more will hold off until the 1st quarter of 2018.