Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed and essentially flat Monday, June 11th, 2018. Volume was light. There were no changes to our key trend-finder indicators Monday. They remain on a Buy signal. Advancing issues exceeded decliners. New Highs rose, and were substantially above New Lows. The McClellan Oscillator remained positive. The short-term leaning is Bullish, and more upside is likely.
Stocks look to have finished their triangle patterns from January 2018, completing around the recent major Bradley model turn date. The triangles are likely wave iv down of a five subwave rising trend inside a large degree trend-channel from August 2015. Wave v-up has likely started for the major averages.
Precious Metals and Mining stocks have flatlined, and are finishing continuation sideways triangle patterns, and once complete, will breakout higher, Gold heading toward 1600 eventually.
The Fed will announce its latest policy for short-term interest rates this coming Wednesday, June 13th. Plenty of news events this week. How markets respond depends upon the psychological mood of the market. If the mood is positive, as measured by our technical indicators, then bad news, as well as good news, will be responded to favorably by the markets.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal June 6th, 2018 and remain there Monday, June 11th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, May 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 6th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Monday, June 11th, rising 3 point (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 18, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 405 Monday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 362, telling us Monday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Wednesday, May 2nd, and remains there Monday, June 11th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silve r and Miners rose Monday, June 11th, and are finishing their Bullish triangles. They moved to a Buy signal Thursday, May 24th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal May 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on March 26th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Monday, June 11th, Demand Power rose 3 to 386 while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 394, telling us Monday’s HUI rise was mild.
DJIA PPI Rose 1 to + 70.53, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 80.00 Slow 76.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 93.33 Slow 78.33 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 80.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 96.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 70.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 3 to Positive + 18, On a Buy
Demand Power Flat at 405, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 362 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to positive + 92.66
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 3156.90
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 0.49, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 517.6 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 147 New Lows 25
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Thursday, April 26th, 2018, and remain there June 11th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on May 23rd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on June 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered aSell signal on April 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Monday, May 7th and remains there June 11th. On Monday June 11th, Demand Power was flat at 423, while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 396, telling us Monday’s move was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal May 7th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 17.4 on Monday, June 11th.
NDX PPI Rose 1 to + 250.35 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 62.00 Slow 62.40 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 65.00 Slow 66.60 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 17.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Flat at 423, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 396 Buy
RUT PPI Rose 1 to +198.35 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 258.3 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal May 24th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 1 to 184.53, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 45.00, Slow 43.33 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Rose 3 to 386; Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 394, Sell