Measuring consecutive quarters of growth is an odd but perhaps interesting metric to use (we can also talk about the almost record length of time avoiding a recession we are approaching).
But an interesting notation on your shared chart is that all the previous records – early 80’s/early 90’s/ 2009-2010 – were all at the “beginning” of an economic recovery, which I feel on the economic bell curve is where we are at today starting a new economic up cycle in 2016 after a cyclical downturn – recession in sectors.
Again though, the “news events” between May & November are about as big as we will ever see that can lead to a panic lower & a very strong resolution higher. There is no crystal ball on geopolitical behavior, but Trump has the desire and ability to greatly enhance the odds of a very favorable outcome should he plays his cards right. Of course there is plenty that can go wrong that can make such a metric as “too many consecutive quarters of accelerating growth in the GDP YoY” seem to be a prescient observation, even if it’s it just a lucky coincident.
On Sun, Apr 29, 2018 at 10:41 AM, Brian Sly <Brian@briansly.com> wrote:
This chart goes to my prior comments that Wall Street Analaysts tend to extrapolate recent past events in to the future.
We have already had record growth and even stronger growth is projected.
Those are difficult expections to meet, let alone exceed.
That same logic means that stocks are priced for those strong expectations.
That should be another reason for the market to pause and / or correct.
When you talk about momentum, remember that year-over-year GDP has now accelerated for seven straight quarters in a row. That’s only happened one other time, coming out of the recession in the 1990s.
Brian Sly and Company, Inc.