Definitely dovetails with my recent newsletter on the topic. The lack of inflation bubbles and the extreme artificial suppression of foreign bonds sending investors to long maturities in the US are among the reasons I have talked in more detail about. Should inflation in general & wage inflation specifically move closer to 4%, that would make a Yield inversion impactful. Also an inversion in the US while Euro yields finally surge faster than US rates toward normality (moving from near zero today to a normal 2+%) – this would also make a US Yield inversion more alarming.

The demographic Labor shortage makes the inflation aspect harder to see in the data (though data collection fails to adjust for demographics).

The Eurozone seems destined to finally push their yields up more rapidly starting late 2018 – to early 2019 which may even widen the US yield spread away from inversion.