Another Wall Street firm says the bull market’s going to continue to run next year. But it won’t be because of tech shares.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. became the third major bank to predict the S&P 500 Index will rise to 3,000 at the end of 2018, joining Oppenheimer and Evercore ISI. If the benchmark for American equity hits that target, it will have rallied 13 percent from Thursday’s close.
“Expansionary phase of the business cycle, synchronized global earnings momentum, U.S. tax reform should remain supportive of further rotation into value, while continuing to pose risk for low vol and growth stocks,” Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note to clients Thursday.
The strategist sees large-cap tech, the group that’s done the heavy lifting in a 2017 rally that’s added 18 percent to the S&P 500, turning into a laggard next year. Tech stocks in the index have surged 37 percent so far this year, pushing valuations to the highest level in eight years. They account for almost one-quarter of the measure by weighting.
“Strong fundamentals but rich valuation, crowded positioning and tax reform rotation are a significant potential headwind,” Lakos-Bujas wrote.
Financials will lead the way as the “key tax beneficiary,” he wrote. Weaker regulations and the potential for higher interest rates will also help. Lakos-Bujas recommends overweighting industrial, energy and materials shares.
John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer and Dennis DeBusschere of Evercore ISI are the other strategists who think the index will reach the 3,000 level next year, making them the three most bullish tracked by Bloomberg. The average among all prognosticators now stands at 2,838, with the majority holding a buy or neutral view on tech stocks.