Look at how the long term SPX price (including dividends) is around 7.8%

 

Notice the recent acceleration in those compound returns:

5 year  13.49%

3 year  11.48%

1 year  23.16%

YTD of 4.65 annualized = 89%.

 

Unless you expect the long term averages to change signficantly upward, then simple math will tell you that annual returns will eventually have to get to below the prior long term average of 7.8%

 

And this:

This shows that the return divided by volatility has been rising well above the long term average

 

Last year’s performance was highly unusual.

 

Another way to say what I have been saying recently – expect more volatility – and probably much more vs. what we had last year.

 

Volatility Measures

 SPX

Qtr-End Mo-End

  Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio
 
1-Year 3.89 4.36 155.78
 
3-Year 10.04 0.88 1.55
 
5-Year 9.46 1.35 2.54
 
10-Year 15.08 0.45 0.63
 
15-Year 13.26 0.53 0.77

 

 

 

http://performance.morningstar.com/Performance/index-c/performance-return.action?t=SPX

 

Growth of 10,000

 SPX

SPX

12K

14K

16K

18K

20K

22K

History (12/31/2017) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SPX 13.41 29.60 11.39 -0.73 9.54 19.42

 

Information from Fidelity

Trailing Total Returns

 SPX

  • Daily
  • Monthly
  • Quarterly

SPX

-15

0

15

30%

Total Return % (01/18/2018) 1-Day 1-Week 1-Month 3-Month YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year 15-Year
SPX -0.16 1.10 4.01 9.24 4.65 23.16 11.48 13.49 7.76 7.84

Quarterly & Monthly Total Returns

 SPX

  • Quarterly
  • Monthly
  January February March April May June July August September October November December
                         
2017 1.79 3.72 -0.04 0.91 1.16 0.48 1.93 0.05 1.93 2.22 2.81 0.98
2016 -5.07 -0.41 6.60 0.27 1.53 0.09 3.56 -0.12 -0.12 -1.94 3.42 1.82
2015 -3.10 5.49 -1.74 0.85 1.05 -2.10 1.97 -6.26 -2.64 8.30 0.05 -1.75
2014 -3.56 4.31 0.69 0.62 2.10 1.91 -1.51 3.77 -1.55 2.32 2.45 -0.42
2013 5.04 1.11 3.60 1.81 2.08 -1.50 4.95 -3.13 2.97 4.46 2.80 2.36
2012 4.36 4.06 3.13 -0.75 -6.27 3.96 1.26 1.98 2.42 -1.98 0.28 0.71
2011 2.26 3.20 -0.11 2.85 -1.35 -1.83 -2.15 -5.68 -7.18 10.77 -0.51 0.85
2010 -3.70 2.85 5.88 1.48 -8.20 -5.39 6.88 -4.75 8.76 3.69 -0.23 6.53
2009 -8.57 -10.99 8.54 9.39 5.31 0.02 7.41 3.36 3.57 -1.98 5.74 1.78
2008 -6.12 -3.48 -0.60 4.75 1.07 -8.60 -0.99 1.22 -9.08 -16.94 -7.49 0.78

Volatility Measures

 SPX

Qtr-End Mo-End

  Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio
 
1-Year 3.89 4.36 155.78
 
3-Year 10.04 0.88 1.55
 
5-Year 9.46 1.35 2.54
 
10-Year 15.08 0.45 0.63
 
15-Year 13.26 0.53 0.77
 

S&P 500 index data: S&P 500 Copyright © 2018
Currency is displayed in USD.