U.S. Markets are closed for Memorial Day on Monday, May 28th. On this Memorial Day Weekend, we remember with gratitude all who gave their lives that we might live in freedom.
Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed Friday, May 25th, in pre-holiday light volume. Blue Chips fell modestly, Trannies and Techs rose mildly. Our key trend-finder indicators remain on a Neutral signal this weekend. Our important Purchasing Power Indicator for Blue Chips, Techs and small caps remains on a Buy. Stocks may have finished large degree triangles formed from January 2018, which could be wave iv within a large degree rising trend-channel from 2015. If so, wave v-up may have started or soon will. There is an alternate possibility stocks are finishing the final subwave e-down of triangle wave iv. There is a remote possibility the triangles are coincidence and are a series of waves one-down and two up with resolution wave threes down next, which would be a plunge. This weekend we show there are mild Bearish divergences between the major stock averages and their 10 day average advance/decline line indicators, which adds some support for the alternate mappings. Or they could be pointing to a coming correction within wave v-up. If our Purchasing Power Indicators move to Sells, or our Secondary Trend Indicator moves to a new Sell, that would add more weight to the alternate mapping possibilities.
Our Mining stock key trend-finder indicators moved to a new Buy signal this week, which supports a coming upside breakout from triangle patterns for Gold, Silver and Miners. U.S. Bonds completed a five wave decline and are starting a new rising trend toward 150ish. Oil (WTIC) fell hard Friday, but was stopped abruptly by its 50 day Moving Average, initial support, in what could be a corrective decline within a large degree rising trend.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal May 18th, 2018 and remain there Friday, May 25th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, May 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on May 18th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on May 7th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Friday, May 25th, dropping 4 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 9, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.
Demand Power fell 3 to 390 Friday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 374, telling us Friday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Wednesday, May 2nd, and remains there Friday, May 25th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silve r and Miners fell slightly Friday, May 25th, and may be ready to breakout above their Bullish triangles. They moved to a Buy signal Thursday, May 24th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal May 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on March 26th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 24th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an ExitShort signal. On Friday, May 25th, Demand Power fell 5 to 389 while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 396, telling us Friday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI Fell 1 to + 55.78, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 64.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 68.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 56.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 46.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 33.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 4 to Positive + 9, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 3 to 390, Supply Pressure Rose 1 to 374 Buy
McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 3.33
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2478.28
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 14.20, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 75.1 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 76 New Lows 44
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sideways signal Thursday, April 26th, 2018, and remain there May 25th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on May 23rd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on May 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Monday, May 7th and remains there May 25th. On Friday May 25th, Demand Power fell 1 to 418, while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 401, telling us Friday’s rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal May 7th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 4.8 on Friday, May 25th.
NDX PPI Rose 1 to + 228.19 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 55.00 Slow 56.20 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 54.00 Slow 54.80 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 4.8 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 418, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 401 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at +186.06 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 75.1 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal May 24th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 1 to 184.35, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00, Slow 41.11 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 5 to 389; Supply Pressure Up 4 to 396, Neutral