Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks fell Friday, November 2nd, on lower volume. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal this weekend. The decline Friday moved the NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Indicator to a Sell from a Buy. The small cap Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy signal. After the October plunge, large degree wave 1-down of a new Bear market, stocks are correcting in large degree wave 2-up. Wave 2-up is likely a 5-3-5 Zigzag pattern, an {a} up, {b} down, {c} up move. Since stocks bottomed in late October, the pattern looks to have completed wave {a} up, and Friday’s decline is part of wave {b} down. If so, there should be one more rally leg wave {c} up to complete 2-up. That could top next week.

There is a Phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for Wednesday, November 7th, the day after we learn results of the U.S. Mid-term elections. Phi mate turns can be off a few days from their ideal scheduled date.

The October Jobs report from the Bureau of Labor statistics Friday said 250,000 new Jobs were created by the economy in October. However, the BLS CES Birth/Death report showed that 247,000 of the 250,000 were an estimate of net new jobs they think may have been created by new businesses that started up in October, net of jobs eliminated from businesses that closed their doors in October. In effect, without this “guess,” the counted new jobs for October amounted to 3,000, not 250,000. This is another indication the U.S. economy is slowing, as the economy needs to generate at least 150,000 new jobs per month to keep pace with legal population growth.  

Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell mildly Friday. They remain on a Sell signal Friday.      

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal October 30th, 2018 and remain there Friday, November 2nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Tuesday, October 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 30th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 30th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Friday, November 2nd, falling 4 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -11. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power fell 1 to 406 Friday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 442, telling us Friday’s decline in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal October 4th, and remains there Friday, November 2nd, 2018. The plunge came right after this Sell signal.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners fell mildly Friday. They generated a Sell signal Thursday, October 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Friday, November 2nd, Demand Power fell 2 to 406 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 422, telling us Friday’s HUI decline was weak.

DJIA PPI fell 3 to 26.25, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 32.67 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 50.56 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 33.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 86.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 83.33

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 4 to Negative -11, On a Sell

Demand Power Fell 1 to 406, Supply Pressure fell 1 to 442 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Positive + 75.58

McClellan Osc Summation Index -1160.30

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 9.35, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 87.6 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 27 New Lows 85

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sideways signal Friday, November 2nd, 2018, and remain there November 2nd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on November 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered aBuy signal on October 30th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 1st. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, October 4th and remains there November 2nd. On Friday November 2nd, Demand Power fell 2 to 448, while Supply Pressure was flat at 476, telling us the decline was mild.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 1st, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to positive + 3.0 on Friday, November 2nd.

 

NDX PPI Fell 10 to 173.44 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 28.57 Slow 20.48 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 61.90 Slow 43.81 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 3.0 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 448, Supply Pressure Flat at 476 Sell

RUT PPI Flat at 151.81 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 73.0 On a Sell

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 25th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at + 162.62, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 45.00, Slow 40.00 on a Sell

HUI Demand Power Fell 2 to 406; Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 422, Sell