Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks were mixed Monday, July 16th, Trannies losing the most, the Industrials up a bit, techs, the S&P 500 and small caps down slightly. All of our key trend-finder indicators remain on Buy signals tonight. Maybe the most interesting index to watch is the Industrials, as they reached the upper boundary of a possible triangle from January 2018 Monday. If they bust out above that boundary line, which is strong resistance, we can conclude the Industrials are inside wave v-up, which should be a strong rally leg to complete the five wave rising move within the trend-channel from 2015. If the Industrials fall hard from here, we would conclude they are starting wave {c} down of e-down to complete the wave iv triangle pattern within that rising trend-channel. Techs and small caps look to already be in wave v-up, and the S&P 500 may also be as well. If so, once the recent minor corrective decline ends for these indices, a strong rally should be next. Volume continues to be weak, with narrow breadth, which is to be expected if stocks are in wave v-up, the conclusion to the Bull market from 2015, and likely 2009 as well.

 

Precious metals are finishing patterns that will lead to a powerful and lengthy rally. Gold is base building and has formed a large Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom, a rounded bottom. This is an accumulation pattern.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Monday, July 16th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Monday, July 16th, dropping 8 points (out of a possible 9 points), at positive + 13, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.

Demand Power fell 5 to 385 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 380, telling us Monday’s move in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Monday, July 16th, 2018.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Mining stocks were flat Monday, July 16th. They moved to a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Monday, July 16th, Demand Power fell 1 to 381 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 406, telling us Monday’s HUI move was weak.

DJIA PPI Flat at + 67.99, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 49.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 57.22 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 83.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 63.33

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 8 Positive + 13, On a Buy

Demand Power Fell 5 to 385, Supply Pressure Rose 4 to 379 Buy

McClellan Oscillator Fell to negative -41.62

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2969.38

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -10.90, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 319.0 on a Buy

NYSE New Highs 46 New Lows 54

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, July 6th, 2018, and remain there July 16th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 16th. On Monday July 16th, Demand Power fell 5 to 424, while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 406, telling us Monday’s decline was mild.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 25.4 on Monday, July 16th.

NDX PPI Fell 2 to + 268.49 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.10 Slow 62.75 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 75.00 Slow 79.01 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 25.4 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 5 to 424, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 406 Buy

 

RUT PPI Fell 1 + 193.44 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 165.50 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at 178.50, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 46.11 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 381; Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 406, Sell