Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks fell sharply Monday, November 19th, as wave {3} down of3-down begins. Monday’s decline did some technical damage. It wiped out all the gains from the past few trading days. It triggered a new Sell signal in our Blue Chip Purchasing Power Indicator. It moved our NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicator to a new Sell signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure and Purchasing Power Indicators moved to new Sell signals. Monday’s decline also completed Head & Shoulders Top patterns for the Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. These patterns give minimum downside price targets of  23,400, 2,.550, and 5,800ish.

 

If this is in fact wave {3} of 3-down, it should be deeper than the October plunge, which shaved 2,700 off the Industrials as typically wave threes are the most dramatic waves.

 

Mining stocks and Metals were flat Monday, and remain on a Sideways signal.  

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal November 12th, 2018 and remain there Monday, November 19th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Monday, November 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on November 12th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Monday, November 19th, losing 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -25. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power fell 7 to 408 Friday while Supply Pressure rose 9 to 428, telling us Monday’s decline in Blue Chips was strong. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal November 12th, and remains there Monday, November 19th, 2018. The previous Sell signal identified the start of the October plunge.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners were flat Monday. They generated a Sideways signal Friday, November 16th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Monday, November 19th, Demand Power fell 3 to 397 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 421, telling us Monday’s HUI move was weak.

DJIA PPI fell 10 to 17.13, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 55.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 61.11 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 56.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 43.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 43.33

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Negative -25, On a Sell

Demand Power Fell 7 to 408, Supply Pressure Rose 9 to 428 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative -30.75

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 285.38

Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 12.01, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 246.7 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 47 New Lows 241

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Monday, November 19th, 2018, and remain there November 19th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sellon November 19th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on November 12th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on November 12th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Short positions signal Monday, November 19th and remains there November 19th. On Monday November 19th, Demand Power fell 7 to 443, while Supply Pressure rose 15 to 465, telling us the decline was powerful with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 1st, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -3.6 on Monday, November 19th.

 

NDX PPI Fell 31 to 138.71 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 55.33 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 61.11 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 3.6 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 7 to 443, Supply Pressure Up 15 to 465 Sell

 

RUT PPI Fell 6 to 141.56 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 155.7 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal October 25th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at + 163.77, on a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 27.22 on a Sell

HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 397; Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 421, Sell