Stocks rose Monday, August 6th, 2018, proceeding toward new all-time highs as they track large degree wave v-up to complete the Bull market trend-channel from 2015. The S&P 500 is 24 points away from a new all-time high. Monday’s rally moved our three component Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator to a new Buy signal. The NASDAQ 100 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator moved to a new Buy signal.
In tonight’s newsletter we update charts for precious metals, Mining stocks, and U.S. Bonds and Notes. Precious metals and Miners remain on a Sell signal as the work to finish corrective declines from 2016. Once these bottom, which should be identified once we get new Buy signals in our HUI key trend-finder indicators, a strong Bull market should begin. Bonds and notes have completed Bearish Head & Shoulders top patterns, which means interest rates are going higher over the coming years. There could be a short-term rally in U.S. Bonds toward 150ish before resuming the decline.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal August 6th, 2018 and remain there Monday, August 6th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 3rd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 6th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Monday, August 6th, rising 3 (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 29, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 394 Monday while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 375, telling us Monday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Monday, August 6th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell Monday, August 6th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Monday, August 6th, Demand Power fell 4 to 381 while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 413, telling us Monday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI Rose 2 to + 78.60, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 54.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 63.33 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 56.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 66.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 73.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 3 to Positive + 29, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose Flat at 394, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 372 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to negative – 11.37
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2307.09
Plunge Protection Team Indicator -0.04, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 167.3 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 100 New Lows 36
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Tuesday, July 24th, 2018, and remain there August 6th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on July 24th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered aBuy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Buy positions signal Friday, August 3rd and remains there August 6th. On Monday August 6th, Demand Power rose 1 to 426, while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 412, telling us Monday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 5.2 on Monday, August 6th.
NDX PPI Rose 3 to + 271.68 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 65.48 Slow 60.48 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 58.33 Slow 50.48 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 5.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 1 to 426, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 412 Buy
RUT PPI Up 2 to + 190.24 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 81.5 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 1 to 172.36, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 15.00, Slow 21.11 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 4 to 381; Supply Pressure Up 3 to 413, Sell