Today’s Market Comments:
Blue Chips and small caps fell Monday, September 24th. Techs rose slightly. There were no changes to our key trend-finder indicators. We did not get a new Hindenburg Omen observation, stopping the 14 consecutive day run, but there is still a 16 days observation on the clock. The Fed meets this week and will announce its latest short-term interest rate policy decision, probably raising short term interest rates again. This raises the price for money mostly to households and small businesses, not affecting large corporations much as they can fund their needs with the 40 percent tax cut gift they got for their massive campaign contributions to Congress in the last election.
Markets sit at a high probability trend turn cycle point given the Fibonacci Cluster turn window and Phi mate turn date we discussed in this past weekend’s report.
Gold and Mining stocks rose, Silver was flat Monday. Our HUI Mining stock key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal Monday.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 20th, 2018 and remain there Monday, September 24th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Monday, September 24th, falling 7 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 17, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 4 to 383 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 7 to 377, telling us Monday’s decline in Blue Chips was moderate, with deep pockets intervention supporting prices. They must fear a strong decline at this time. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, September 13th, and remains there Monday, September 24th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold rose, Silver was flat, and Mini ng stocks rose Monday. They generated a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal September 18th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Monday, September 24th, Demand Power rose 5 to 405 while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 402, telling us Monday’s HUI rise was moderate.
DJIA PPI fell 2 to 90.47, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow 84.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 83.33 Slow 78.89 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 83.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 80.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 50.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 7 to Positive + 17, On a Buy
Demand Power fell 4 to 383, Supply Pressure Up 7 to 377 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 59.92
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1865.44
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 3.07, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 29.2 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 47 New Lows 112
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there September 24th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there September 24th. On Monday September 24th, Demand Power rose 1 to 416, while Supply Pressure was flat at 414, telling us Monday’s rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 11.4 on Monday, September 24th.
NDX PPI Rose 1 to + 272.29 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 54.76 Slow 56.90 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.71 Slow 56.19 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 11.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power UP 1 to 416, Supply Pressure Flat at 414 Neutral
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 192.12 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -90.0 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 1 to + 155.94, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00, Slow 36.11 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 5 to 405; Supply Pressure fell 3 to 402, Neutral