Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks rose sharply Thursday, July 12th. The NASDAQ Composite and 100 both hit new all-time highs. The Industrials and S&P 500 hit new July highs. All of our key trend-finder indicators remain on Buy signals tonight. Momentum is up. The odds suggest more upside is coming. Volume was mild, and breadth was mild, which is to be expected if stocks are rising in the final wave v-up of the rising trend-channel from August 2015. 

 

The top wave mapping at this time considers stocks are correcting within a new rising trend, wave v-up within the large rising trend-channel from August 2015. The alternate for Blue Chips is that they are now working through the final wave {c} down of the final subwave e-down of triangleiv from January 2018. Thursday’s rally weakens that scenario. We update charts in tonight’s report.

Precious metals are finishing patterns that will lead to a powerful and lengthy rally. Gold is base building and has formed a large Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom, a rounded bottom. This is an accumulation pattern. While precious metals and Miners fell sharply Wednesday, which could be fulfilling our alternate mapping, nevertheless, once complete, which should happen within months if not weeks, a strong rising trend should take over.      

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, July 12th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, July 12th, rising 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), at positive + 22, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.

Demand Power rose 5 to 392 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 376, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Thursday, July 12th, 2018.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose slightly Thursday, July 12th. They moved to a Sideways signal Tuesday, July 3rd, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal July 3rd, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Thursday, July 12th, Demand Power rose 1 to 385 while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 404, telling us Thursday’s HUI rise was mild.

DJIA PPI Rose 4 to + 68.15, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 47.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 51.67 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 96.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 80.00

Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 6 Positive + 22, On a Buy

Demand Power Rose 5 to 392, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 376 Buy

McClellan Oscillator Rose to positive + 36.20

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2992.31

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -7.20, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 526.8 on a Buy

NYSE New Highs 94 New Lows 40

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, July 6th, 2018, and remain there July 12th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 11th. On Thursday July 12th, Demand Power rose 9 to 430, while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 405, telling us Thursday’s rise was strong, with half the buying coming from shorts covering.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 37.4 on Thursday, July 12th.

 

NDX PPI Rose 18 to + 269.37 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 58.64 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 87.00 Slow 72.74 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 37.4 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Rose 9 to 430, Supply Pressure fell 5 to 405 Buy

 

RUT PPI Rose 1 + 195.40 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 221.80 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal July 3rd, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at 179.20, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 48.89 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Rose 1 to 385; Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 404, Sell