Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose Thursday, August 2nd, reversing from early declines. The rise was strong enough to trigger new Buy signals in our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator and our NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Indicator, suggesting small caps and techs are headed higher. Stocks are in large degree wave v-up to complete a Bull market from 2015, and possible ending the Larger degree Bull market from 2009. There is heavy resistance as stocks battle to rise, which is typical of ending Bull market action. Mapping for the short-term path for the S&P 500 has been updated in charts on page 25. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicator remains on a Sideways signal tonight.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal July 30th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, August 2nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Monday, July 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on July 30th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, August 2nd, rising 7 (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 22, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power rose 3 to 393 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 381, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Thursday, August 2nd, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell Thursday, August 2nd. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Thursday, August 2nd, Demand Power fell 3 to 380 while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 414, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was mild.
DJIA PPI Rose 2 to + 74.93, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 55.33 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 68.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 46.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 43.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 7 to Positive + 22, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 3 to 393, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 381 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to negative – 68.19
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2357.55
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.3, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 1.7 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 90 New Lows 63
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sideways signal Tuesday, July 24th, 2018, and remain there August 2nd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on July 24th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered aBuy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Buy positions signal Monday, July 30th and remains there August 2nd. On Thursday August 2nd, Demand Power rose 6 to 426, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 417, telling us Thursday’s rise was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal July 27th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to negative -2.4 on Thursday, August 2nd.
NDX PPI Rose 9 to + 267.04 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 59.52 Slow 59.52 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 46.43 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 2.4 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Up 6 to 426, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 417 Buy
RUT PPI Rose 3 to + 190.13 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 108.9 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 172.47, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 21.11 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 380; Supply Pressure Up 1 to 414, Sell