Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks fell Thursday, August 30th. There were no changes to our key trend-finder indicators, and all of our Purchasing Power Indicators for Blue Chips, Techs and small caps remain on Buys. Therefore, we do not have any confirmation tonight that the decline Thursday means wave v-up is complete. While that may be the case, it could also be that the decline Thursday is the start of small subwave 2-down within a five subwave rally for v-up. We need to see more price action over the coming days to determine whether large degree wave v-up has finished. If it has, the Bull market is over. To say so tonight is premature.
There is a Bullish divergence tonight between the HUI Mining stocks index and the HUI 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, which is a heads up that a new strong rising trend in Miners and Metals is not far off. Once we get new Buy signals in our HUI key trend-finder indicators, we will have strong evidence the next Bull market is starting.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal August 17th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, August 30th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 17th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 23rd, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, August 30th, losing 9 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 21, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 6 to 384 Thursday while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 362, telling us Thursday’s decline in Blue Chips was moderate and due more to a lack of buying interest rather than a strong urge to sell. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, August 17th, and remains there Thursday, August 30th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners Fell Thursda y. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Thursday, August 30th, Demand Power fell 3 to 383 while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 423, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was mild.
DJIA PPI Fell 3 to + 87.72, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 80.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 80.56 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 73.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 33.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 9 to Positive + 21, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 6 to 384, Supply Pressure Up 4 to 362 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Positive + 15.19
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2639.33
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 3.83, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 372.6 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 114 New Lows 62
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018, and remain there August 30th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon August 22nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 21st, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Wednesday, August 29th and remains there August 30th. On Thursday August 30th, Demand Power fell 4 to 418, while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 398, telling us Thursday’s decline was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 22.6 on Thursday, August 30th.
NDX PPI Fell 2 to + 284.21 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 63.10 Slow 63.57 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.62 Slow 75.95 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 22.6 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 4 to 418, Supply Pressure Up 3 to 398 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at 198.56 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 206.9 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 1 to 154.98, on a Sell, Needs 158.04 for a new Buy.
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 10.00, Slow 5.56 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 383; Supply Pressure Up 3 to 423, Sell