Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks fell slightly Thursday, August 9th on light volume. Breadth was evenly split. There was no change to any of our key indicators, which remain on Buys. There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Thursday, suggesting a large price move is likely over the coming days. The Industrials and S&P 500 have declined slightly in a mild downward sloping trend-channel over the past three days, which we show in charts on page 25. It is possible this has been small degree wave 2-down within v-up. It is possible that a Bullish Flag has formed since August 1st. If so, a breakout higher should soon begin. A sharp decline from here might suggest a deeper wave 2-down move is occurring to correct the rally from August 1st. New Sell signals in our key trend-finder indicators would suggest a major trend turn down has started.
Precious metals and Mining stocks were flat Thursday. Mining stocks are finishing a corrective wave c-down of 2-down. They are deep oversold. Once this corrective decline completes, a powerful Bull market will begin. Precious metals should follow Mining stocks. A new Buy signal in our HUI key trend-finder indicators will market the start of the next strong rally leg.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal August 6th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, August 9th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 3rd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 6th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, August 9th, falling 3 (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 26, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 3 to 389 Thursday while Supply Pressure was flat at 375, telling us Thursday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Thursday, August 9th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks were flat Thursday, August 9th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Thursday, August 9th, Demand Power fell 1 to 377 while Supply Pressure was flat at 415, telling us Thursday’s HUI move was weak.
DJIA PPI Fell 1 to + 79.11, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 58.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 72.22 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 56.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 40.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 3 to Positive + 26, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 3 to 389, Supply Pressure Flat at 375 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to negative – 25.04
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2252.02
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 2.41, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 67.1 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 115 New Lows 35
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Tuesday, August 7th, 2018, and remain there August 9th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 7th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Buy positions signal Friday, August 3rd and remains there August 9th. On Thursday August 9th, Demand Power fell 2 to 423, while Supply Pressure was flat at 410, telling us Thursday’s move was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 3.0 on Thursday, August 9th.
NDX PPI Flat at + 273.50 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 65.48 Slow 64.76 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 61.90 Slow 60.00 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 3.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 423, Supply Pressure Flat at 410 Buy
RUT PPI Rose 1 to 191.5 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -10.4 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 171.05, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 25.00, Slow 22.78 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 377; Supply Pressure Flat at 415, Sell