Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks rose again Thursday, January 10th, on lighter volume and modest upside breadth. The rally from late December looks to be tiring. Our short-term key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal. Our 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicators narrowed on the rally, a small Bearish divergence. There is a major Bradley model turn date scheduled for next Thursday +/- a few days. This could be pointing to a top. If so, this rally from late December was corrective wave {ii} up of {3} down, or a larger degree wave {4} up of 3-down, or alternatively possibly large degree wave 4-up. Regardless, it means another strong declining trend should start sometime over the next week. The VIX has declined and is deep oversold, looking ripe to rise, which would imply a coming decline in stocks.

 

Precious metals and Mining stocks are closing in on a Bullish Golden Cross, where their 50 day moving averages rise above their 200 day moving averages. We updated charts in tonight’s report.       

 

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal January 4th, 2019 and remain there Thursday, January 10th, 2019. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, January 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, 2019. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Thursday, January 10th, falling 1 point (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -9. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power rose 1 to 435 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 6 to 414, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild, and due more to a lack of selling rather than a strong urge to buy. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal December 9th, and remains there Thursday, January 10th, 2019. 

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on January 2nd, 2019, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is n not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months. Maybe a massive short-covering rally is induced by the PPT that causes a violent rally just when market participants are expecting more selling.

Gold, Silver and Miners fell slightly Thursday. The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Sideways (Neutral) signal Wednesday, January 2nd, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal January 2nd, 2019, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on December 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal Wednesday, December 12th. On Thursday, January 10th, Demand Power fell 6 to 420 while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 414, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was moderate.

DJIA PPI rose 2 to negative -11.47, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 37.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 90.00 Slow 77.78 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 46.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 86.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 76.67

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 1 to Negative -9, On a Sell

Demand Power Rose 1 to 435, Supply Pressure Fell 6 to 414 Buy

McClellan Oscillator Fell to Positive + 344.91

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 439.72

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -15.83, an “OFF” signal

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 1,062.2 on a Buy

NYSE New Highs 11 New Lows 7

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, January 4th, 2019, and remain there January 10th, 2019. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on December 27th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal of January 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Tuesday, January 8th and remains there January 10th. On Thursday January 10th, Demand Power fell 1 to 455, while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 433, telling us the rally was mild.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal January 7th, 2019, and needs to fall below negative -5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to + 36.4 on Thursday, January 10th. 

NDX PPI Rose 1 to 105.99, On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 67.07 Slow 46.59 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 94.05 Slow 89.05 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 36.4, On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 455, Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 433 Buy

 

RUT PPI Rose 1 to 119.08, on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 568.4 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways (Neutral) signal January 2nd, 2019.

HUI PPI Fell 1 to + 169.40, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 90.00, Slow 84.44 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Fell 6 to 420; Supply Pressure Up 4 to 414, Buy