Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed Thursday, July 19th, Blue Chips and techs down, small caps and Trannies up. All of our key trend-finder indicators remain on Buy signals tonight. What was unusual about Thursday’s decline in Blue Chips was that Advancing Issues exceeded Decliners by quite a bit. Further, New Highs rose on the decline. This positive set of internals suggests that any decline here is corrective inside a larger degree rising trend, which we believe is wave v-up of the Bull market trend-channel from 2015. Small caps may be forming a small Ascending Bullish Triangle from mid-June. See the chart on page 28.
Precious metals and Mining stocks fell Thursday as they are finishing corrective declining patterns from 2016. Once this correction completes, a powerful Bull market will return to these markets.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, July 19th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, July 19th, dropping 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 20, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 388 Thursday while Supply Pressure was flat at 375, telling us Thursday’s decline in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Thursday, July 19th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell Thursday, July 19th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Thursday, July 19th, Demand Power fell 4 to 378 while Supply Pressure rose 6 to 410, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI Fell 2 to + 69.72, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 50.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 54.44 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 56.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 33.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 2 to Positive + 20, On a Buy
Demand Power Flat at 388, Supply Pressure Flat at 375 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to positive + 5.08
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2934.18
Plunge Protection Team Indicator -2.92, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 200.4 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 81 New Lows 40
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, July 6th, 2018, and remain there July 19th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 19th. On Thursday July 19th, Demand Power fell 3 to 422, while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 407, telling us Thursday’s decline was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 20.0 on Thursday, July 19th.
NDX PPI Fell 4 to + 268.98 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 67.86 Slow 67.86 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.81 Slow 78.10 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 20.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 3 to 422, Supply Pressure Up 4 to 407 Buy
RUT PPI Rose 2 + 197.73 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 52.70 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 2 to 176.87, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 33.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 4 to 378; Supply Pressure Up 6 to 410, Sell