Stocks rose Thursday, March 8th after a lot of up and down oscillation, working through a small middle sideways wave on their path to higher prices over the short-run.
There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Thursday, suggesting a large price move is coming over the next few days.
Our short-term trend Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy signal. We got a new Buy signal Thursday in our Blue Chip 14 day Stochastic and our Blue-Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator.
If we concentrate on the two charts on pages 26 and 27, we see two possible scenarios for stocks, which both have agreement on the path for stocks over the next few days, which is up. The S&P 500 should be headed to the 2,750 to 2,775ish area and the Industrials should be headed to the 25,250 to 25,500ish area before the next move down occurs. On page 26 we show the scenario where stocks finished the Bull market from 2009 on January 26th, and are now working through a corrective rally inside a new Bear market decline. The second scenario shown on page 27 considers stocks are working through a large sideways triangle pattern for wave iv down, with v-up next which would be a strong rally leg taking several months to complete, that will lead to the end of the Bull market, its last leg up.
Another way to look at the stock market right now is stocks are inside a trading range between the January 26th highs and the bottom boundary of a rising trend-channel from August 2015 (see chart on page 25). The key point from this analysis is that whichever boundary stocks breach, will determine the next major stock market vertical trend that lasts many months. Should stocks rise above the January 26th highs, above 26,617 for the Industrials and above 2,873 for the S&P 500, then stocks will be starting a large wave v-up move (see chart on page 27). Should stocks drop below 23,500 in the Industrials and below 2,550 for the S&P 500, then a stock market crash and major Bear market is next (see chart on page 26).
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal Monday, March 5th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, March 7th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Monday, March 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on March 8th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on March 1st, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Thursday, March 8th, rising 3 points Thursday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 21, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 411 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 396, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild and due more to a lack of selling interest rather than a strong urge to Buy. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, March 8th, and remains there Thursday, March 8th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “Off” signal on February 21st, which means the PPT is unlikely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “Off.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold fell and Miners were flat Thursday, March 8th. They moved to a Sideways signal Tuesday, February 27th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal February 14th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on February 27th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On February 2nd, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal. On Thursday, March 8th, Demand Power rose 1 to 393 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 428, telling us Thursday’s HUI move was mild.
DJIA PPI rose 2 to 66.41 on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 24.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 30.56 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 33.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 83.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Flat at Positive + 21, On a Buy
Demand Power Flat at 411 Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 396 Buy
McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 105.13
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1280.09
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 15.09, on an “Off”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 326.8 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 103 New Lows 40
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Friday, March 2nd, 2018, and remain there March 8th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon March 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on March 1st, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on March 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Monday, March 5th and remains there March 8th. On Thursday March 8th, Demand Power rose 1 to 447, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 421, telling us Thursday’s rally was mild, and due more to a lack of selling interest rather than a strong urge to buy.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal February 15th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 18.2 on Thursday, March 8th, 2018.
NDX PPI Rose 3 to 259.27 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 54.00 Slow 50.00 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 57.00 Slow 53.20 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 18.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Rose 1 to 447, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 421 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at 173.95 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 259.30 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal February 27th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 177.46, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 15.00, Slow 9.44 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Up 1 to 393; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 428, Sell