Today’s Market Comments:

 

Stocks rose sharply Thursday, November 16th, on lower volume. The rise lends credence to the short-term wave mapping we annotated in the past few newsletters in the chart on page 25, which we update tonight. This suggests stocks have another rising leg to finish before a major top arrives. One possible scenario shows a Rising Bearish Wedge in formation from late October, with the middle wave of the five subwaves underway now, wave {c} up.  There were no changes to our key indicators from Thursday’s price rise. Our Purchasing Power Indicator was once again smart enough not to get fooled, remaining on a Buy during the recent decline.

 

Our take is stocks could rally into early to mid-December, and then top, ending the Bull market from 2009. We will know the new Bear market has started once we get new Sell signals in our three key indicators, the Purchasing Power Indicator (short-term), the Secondary Trend Indicator (intermediate-term) and a key confirmation that the Bear market is major would be a new Sell in the Primary Trend Indicator (long-term). There is a major Bradley model turn date in early January 2018, a major Phi mate turn date at the end of December, and we sit on a Hindenburg Omen eight observation warning. This really has the feel of late 2007. The tax bill in its present form, if enacted, will not boost the economy. It fails badly for small businesses and consumers. There is a very good chance it will not pass at all, as the Senate’s passage is suspect.

 

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal Wednesday, October 25th, 2017 and remain there Thursday, November 16th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on October 25th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 2nd. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Thursday, November 16th, rising 6 points Thursday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 19, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.

Demand Power rose 5 to 373 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 7 to 307, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was strong. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal Tuesday, November 14th, and remains there Thursday, November 16th, 2017.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “Off” signal on August 23rd, which means the PPT is likely to stand down from supporting the markets while this indicator remains on an “Off.” This does not mean stocks cannot rally, it just means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on a Buy signal) and when it moves to a Neutral of Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold and Miners were flat Thursday, November 16th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, September 15th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal September 15th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on September 11th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On September 18th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered an Enter Short signal. On Thursday, November 16th, Demand Power fell 1 to 375 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 412, telling us Thursday’s HUI move was weak.

DJIA PPI Rose 5 to + 71.16 on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 56.67 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 43.89 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 53.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 36.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 56.67

Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 6 to Positive + 19, On a Buy

Demand Power Up 5 to 373, Supply Pressure Fell 7 to 380 Sell

McClellan Oscillator rose to negative -71.23 from -163.54

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1928.87

Plunge Protection Team Indicator positive + 8.91, on an “Off”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 135.0 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 121 New Lows 46

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Wednesday, October 25th, 2017, and remain there November 16th, 2017. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on October 27th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on October 25th, 2017 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 30th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Long positions signal Wednesday, October 18th and remains there November 16th. On Thursday November 16th, Demand Power rose 4 to 417, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 413, telling us Thursday’s rise was moderate.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 8th, needing to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to positive + 10.0 on Thursday, November 16th, 2017.

 

NDX PPI Rose 9 to 213.74 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 48.80 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 50.40 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 10.0 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Up 4 to 417, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 413 Neutral

 

RUT PPI Rose 5 to 168.77 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 32.8 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

 

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal September 15th, 2017.

HUI PPI Flat at 181.66, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.00, Slow 41.67 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 375; Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 412, Sell