Today’s Market Comments:

 

Stocks rose again Thursday, November 1st, on lower volume. Our Blue Chip, Tech and small cap key trend-finder indicators are on a Buy signal tonight. Stocks look to be inside a 5-3-5 Zig-zag corrective wave 2-up rally trend, correcting a portion of the recent October plunge. It looks as if wave {a} up of this move may have topped Thursday, which if so, means wave {b} down will likely occur starting Friday. Once complete, wave {c} up will take stocks higher to complete wave 2. There is a Phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for November 7th, the day after the Mid-term elections. If our wave mapping is correct, then once we get a new Sell signal in our key trend-finder indicators, a sharp wave 3-down declining trend will follow.

 

It is interesting that while over 70 percent of companies reported higher earnings for the third quarter, and they better given the 40 percent tax cut they received, revenues have disappointed, with almost half of all reporting companies showing weaker revenue lines. This is the stuff of Bear markets.

 

Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose sharply Thursday, and may be starting their next rising trend. We will not get confirmation until our HUI key trend-finder indicators move to a new Buy signal. They remain on a Sell Thursday.      

 

 

The consecutive run of New NYSE Lows above 79 was stopped Thursday at 42 consecutive trading days, which was an astonishing and dangerous condition.

Our Mining stock key trend-finder indicators are on a Sell signal Tuesday.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal October 30th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, November 1st. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Tuesday, October 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 30th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 30th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Thursday, November 1st, rising 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -7. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power up 11 to 407 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 8 to 443, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was strong with short covering about a third of the buying. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal October 4th, and remains there Thursday, November 1st, 2018. The plunge came right after this Sell signal.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners rose sharply Thursday. They generated a Sell signal Thursday, October 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Thursday, November 1st, Demand Power rose 10 to 408 while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 423, telling us Thursday’s HUI rise was strong with short-covering boosting prices.

DJIA PPI rose 7 to 29.08, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00 Slow 29.33 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 80.00 Slow 43.33 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 40.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 86.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 90.00

Secondary Trend Indicator Up 6 to Negative -7, On a Sell

Demand Power Up 11 to 407, Supply Pressure fell 8 to 443 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Positive + 99.82

McClellan Osc Summation Index -1235.88

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 10.56, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 52.4 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 28 New Lows 74

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Buy signal Thursday, November 1st, 2018, and remain there November 1st, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on October 30th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on October 30th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on November 1st. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, October 4th and remains there November 1st. On Thursday November 1st, Demand Power rose 11 to 450, while Supply Pressure fell 7 to 476, telling us the rise was strong with a third of the buying coming from shorts covering open positions.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 1st, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to positive + 5 on Thursday, November 1st.

 

NDX PPI Rose 10 to 183.05 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 27.38 Slow 16.19 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 34.05 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator +5.0 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Up 11 to 450, Supply Pressure Fell 7 to 476 Sell

RUT PPI Up 9 to 151.20 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 52.4 On a Sell

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 25th, 2018.

HUI PPI Up 3 to + 162.69, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 45.00, Slow 42.78 on a Sell

HUI Demand Power Up 10 to 408; Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 423, Sell