Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose modestly Thursday, September 27th, unaffected by the Kavanaugh hearings, unaffected by the Fed’s raising short-term interest rates. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sideways signal Thursday. Stocks are finishing Rising Bearish Wedge topping patterns from July 2018. The expected downside price targets, the initial targets for the start of the next Bear Market, are about 8 to 10 percent below current levels. The stock market sits on a 17 observation Hindenburg Omen Thursday, telling us the market is in a fragile condition. New NYSE Lows continue to be significant, which is not good for the market. There is a Fibonacci Cluster Turn window at this time, and a Phi mate turn date ideally scheduled for Tuesday, October 2nd +/- a few days.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks fell Thursday, in what may be the final small degree wave 5-down move to put in a bottom. It is interesting that this small degree wave down is occurring with our HUI key indicators remaining on a Buy signal. That suggests to us the downtrend that has been going on for several years now is tiring.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 25th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, September 27th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, September 27th, rising 4 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 10, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power was flat at 377 Thursday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 381, telling us Thursday’s rise in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, September 13th, and remains there Thursday, September 27th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Silver, Gold and Miners fell Thursda y. They generated a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal September 18th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Thursday, September 27th, Demand Power fell 2 to 400 while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 409, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was mild.
DJIA PPI rose 1 to 89.14, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00 Slow 76.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 73.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 70.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 36.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 4 to Positive + 10, On a Buy
Demand Power flat at 377, Supply Pressure fell 1 to 381 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative – 76.38
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1611.96
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 0.83, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -131.4 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 45 New Lows 115
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there September 27th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered aBuy signal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there September 27th. On Thursday September 27th, Demand Power fell 1 to 415, while Supply Pressure was flat at 414, telling us Thursday’s move was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 10.0 on Thursday, September 27th.
NDX PPI Rose 4 to + 277.70 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 54.76 Slow 55.24 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 52.38 Slow 56.43 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 8.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 413, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 410 Neutral
RUT PPI Flat at 188.71 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 109.3 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at + 153.26, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 45.56 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 2 to 400; Supply Pressure up 2 to 409, Neutral