Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks fell mildly Thursday, August 23rd. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal Thursday as the 30 day stochastic moved to a new Sell. There were no other changes. Our important Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy for Blue Chips, Techs and small caps.
Mining stocks and Gold corrected the recent rally on Thursday, August 23rd. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal Thursday. Once they move to a new Buy, we will have confirmation the next major rising trend is starting in metals and miners.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal August 17th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, August 22nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 17th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on August 23rd, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Thursday, August 23rd, losing 7 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 20, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 5 to 384 Thursday while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 370, telling us Thursday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, August 17th, and remains there Thursday, August 23rd, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners fell Thursda y . They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Wednesday, August 22nd, Demand Power fell 2 to 376 while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 434, telling us Thursday’s HUI decline was mild.
DJIA PPI Fell 1 to + 80.08, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 78.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 68.33 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 66.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 63.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 26.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 7 to Positive + 20, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 5 to 384, Supply Pressure Up 2 to 370 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Positive + 32.51
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2310.08
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 8.36, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 224.0 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 93 New Lows 42
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018, and remain there August 23rd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon August 22nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 21st, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Tuesday, August 21st and remains there August 23rd. On Thursday August 23rd, Demand Power fell 4 to 409, while Supply Pressure was flat at 410, telling us Thursday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 1.6 on Thursday, August 23rd.
NDX PPI Fell 1 to + 264.69 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 52.38 Slow 52.38 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 55.71 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 1.6 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 4 to 409, Supply Pressure Flat at 410 Neutral
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 195.99 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 166.4 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 2 to 153.88, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00, Slow 3.89 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 2 to 376; Supply Pressure Up 3 to 434, Sell