Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks oscillated all over the place Thursday, December 13th. The major averages closed mixed. Trannies and small caps closed down sharply.  Blue Chips and Techs were flat. Volume was light. There were no changes to our key indicators from Thursday’s price action. Stocks are likely inside large degree wave 3-down, and either have completed subwave {2} up of 3-down, or are finishing a middle subwave b-down of an a-up, b-down, c-up for{2} up.  If b-down is occurring now, we could see wave c-up take stocks higher into Christmas week. Wave {3} down of 3-down is next after {2} up finishes, and that could be a lengthy and deep decline. The acceleration phase of that coming decline could occur in early 2019.

 

Precious Metals and Mining stocks were flat Thursday. They remain on a Buy signal Thursday.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal December 4th, 2018 and remain there Thursday, December 13th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Tuesday, December 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Thursday, December 13th, falling 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -18. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power fell 5 to 393 Thursday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 431, telling us Thursday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal December 6th, and remains there Thursday, December 13th, 2018. 

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners were flat Thursday. They generated a Buy signal Friday, December 7th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 7th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal Wednesday, December 12th. On Thursday, December 13th, Demand Power rose 6 to 417 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 397, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was moderate.

DJIA PPI Flat at negative -0.11, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.33 Slow 30.00 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 23.89 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 33.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 26.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 73.33

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 2 to Negative -18, On a Sell

Demand Power Fell 5 to 393, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 431 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative – 55.26

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 349.5

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 5.84, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 362.2 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 25 New Lows 378

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Tuesday, December 11th, 2018, and remain there December 13th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on December 11th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on December 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on December 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Wednesday, December 12th and remains there December 13th. On Thursday December 13th, Demand Power fell 6 to 443, while Supply Pressure was flat at 439, telling us the rise was weak.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to – 1.6 on Thursday, December 13th. 

NDX PPI Flat at 139.57 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 32.14 Slow 27.86 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 28.57 Slow 22.14 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator –  1.6 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 6 to 443, Supply Pressure Flat at 439 Buy

 

RUT PPI Fell 5 to 119.23 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 353.9 On a Sell

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal December 7th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at + 171.68, on a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 70.00, Slow 58.89 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Up 6 to 417; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 397, Buy