Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose Tuesday, August 21st, 2018, small caps exploding above the upper boundary of a Sideways triangle from June 2018. Wave v-up is underway. The S&P 500 took off higher in the final subwave e-up of a Rising Bearish Wedge from May 2018, as did techs. Small caps and Trannies hit new all-time highs Tuesday. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal Tuesday, as does our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator. Techs remain on a Sideways, waiting for their Purchasing Power Indicator to move to a Buy. The NASDAQ 100 14 day stochastic joined the 30 day stochastic on a Buy.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks rose modestly Tuesday. Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal. A bottom should be near, and may have occurred Friday, August 17th. Once our HUI key indicators move to Buys, we will have strong evidence the bottom is in and a major Bull market is starting.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal August 17th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, August 21st. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 17th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, August 21st, rising 4 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 29, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power rose 2 to 391 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 368, telling us Tuesday’s rise in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, August 17th, and remains there Tuesday, August 21st, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners rose Tuesday . They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, August 21st, Demand Power rose 1 to 374 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 435, telling us Tuesday’s HUI rise was mild.
DJIA PPI Rose 1 to + 81.11, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 86.67 Slow 78.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 61.67 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 86.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 83.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 80.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 4 to Positive + 29, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 2 to 391, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 368 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Positive + 114.71
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2180.15
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 8.31, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 283.4 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 162 New Lows 21
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aNeutral signal Friday, August 10th, 2018, and remain there August 21st, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sellon August 15th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 21st, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Tuesday, August 21st and remains there August 21st. On Tuesday August 21st, Demand Power rose 2 to 412, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 412, telling us Tuesday’s rise was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 2.0 on Tuesday, August 21st.
NDX PPI Rose 2 to + 263.80 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 50.48 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 64.29 Slow 48.57 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -0.8 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 2 to 412, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 412 Neutral
RUT PPI Rose 4 to 196.21 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 222.6 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 155.64, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00, Slow 8.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 1 to 374; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 435, Sell