Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks oscillated sharply above and below the flat line all day Tuesday, December 11th. Techs finished slightly positive, Blue Chips, Trannies and Small Caps slightly lower. The S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 have all seen Death Crosses, where their 50 day moving averages drop below their 200 day moving averages. This is a sign more downside is coming.

 

Stocks are finishing the final leg of subwaves {2} up of large degree 3-down. If this is correct, stocks could rally most of the rest of the week, then top. The next leg down would be {3} of 3,which could be powerful. Our NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal as the NDX Purchasing Power Indicator moved to a Sell, at odds with the NDX stochastic indicators.   

 

Precious metals and Mining stocks fell mildly Tuesday. They remain on a Buy signal Monday.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal December 4th, 2018 and remain there Monday, December 10th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Tuesday, December 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Monday, December 10th, dropping 1 point (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -24. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power fell 5 to 399 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 439, telling us Monday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild, largely driven by short-covering. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal December 6th, and remains there Monday, December 14th, 2018. 

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners fell Tuesday. They generated a Buy signal Friday, December 7th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 7th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Short signal Friday, December 7th. On Tuesday, December 11th, Demand Power fell 3 to 405 while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 406, telling us Tuesday’s HUI move was mild.

DJIA PPI rose 1 to negative -2.01, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 45.33 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00 Slow 45.56 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 30.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 0.00

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 6.67

Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 1 to Negative -24, On a Sell

Demand Power Fell 5 to 399, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 439 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 92.77

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 182.73

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 0.04, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator  – 145.1 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 12 New Lows 561

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Tuesday, December 4th, 2018, and remain there December 10th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on December 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on December 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Long positions signal Friday, December 7th and remains there December 10th. On Monday December 10th, Demand Power was flat at 447, while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 451, telling us the rise was mild, and due more to a lack of selling rather than a strong urge to buy.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal November 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to + 11.4 on Monday, December 10th. 

NDX PPI Up 5 to 133.26 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 26.19 Slow 42.62 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 20.24 Slow 36.90 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 11.4 On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Fell 0 to 447, Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 451 Neutral

 

RUT PPI Fell 1 to 121.59 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 153.6 On a Sell

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal December 7th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at + 170.29, on a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00, Slow 47.78 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 408; Supply Pressure Up 1 to 405, Neutral