Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks rose again Tuesday, January 8th. The rise moved the Blue Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator to a Neutral signal from a Sell. The rally also moved the NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator to a new Buy. Our short-term key trend-finder indicators remain on Buys Tuesday. The McClellan Oscillator remains at an extreme overbought level.

 

Stocks are likely either in subwave {ii} up of {3} down or are in wave {4} up of large degree 3-down. They remain inside a declining trend-channel from October 2018. See chart on page 25. There is a major Bradley model turn date ideally due for January 17th, 2019 +/- a few days. Resistance for the current rally remains the 50 day Moving average, which is approximately 24,500 for the Industrials, which also happens to be close to the upper boundary of the large declining trend-channel from October 2018. Resistance for the S&P 500 is also its 50 day moving average, which is around 2,640. Hard to say, but that would be a nice tidy place for an end to this rally around the Bradley model turn date, to be followed by another strong declining trend.

 

Mining stocks remain on a Sideways signal Tuesday. Their 50 day moving average is curling up, and is headed for its declining 200 day moving average. A crossover would be a bullish golden cross. Same development is occurring for Gold and Silver. They were flat Tuesday. 

 

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal January 4th, 2019 and remain there Tuesday, January 8th, 2019. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, January 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, 2019. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Tuesday, January 8th, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -11. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power rose 6 to 433 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 9 to 429, telling us Tuesday’s rise in Blue Chips was strong, and due more to a lack of selling rather than a strong urge to buy. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal December 6th, and remains there Tuesday, January 8th, 2019. 

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on January 2nd, 2019, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is n not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months. Maybe a massive short-covering rally is induced by the PPT that causes a violent rally just when market participants are expecting more selling.

Gold fell, Silver and Miners were flat Tuesday. The HUI generated a key trend-finder indicator Sideways (Neutral) signal Wednesday, January 2nd, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal January 2nd, 2019, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on December 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal Wednesday, December 12th. On Tuesday, January 8th, Demand Power rose 2 to 423 while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 415, telling us Tuesday’s HUI move was mild.

DJIA PPI rose 6 to negative -15.80, on a Buy

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 36.67 Slow 22.67 On a Buy

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 96.67 Slow 63.89 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 36.67

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 96.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 100.00

Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 2 to Negative -11, On a Sell

Demand Power Rose 6 to 433, Supply Pressure Fell 9 to 429 Neutral

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Positive + 340.79

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 1139.00

Plunge Protection Team Indicator -9.79, an “OFF” signal

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 28.0 on a Buy

NYSE New Highs 14 New Lows 10

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, January 4th, 2019, and remain there January 8th, 2019. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on January 4th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on December 27th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal of January 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Tuesday, January 8th and remains there January 8th. On Tuesday January 8th, Demand Power rose 3 to 455, while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 443, telling us the rally was moderate.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal January 7th, 2019, and needs to fall below negative -5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to + 28.0 on Tuesday, January 8th. 

NDX PPI Rose 5 to 101.34, On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 43.90 Slow 26.59 On a Buy

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 88.10 Slow 65.71 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 28.0, On a Buy

NDX Demand Power Up 3 to 455, Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 443 Buy

 

RUT PPI Rose 5 to 115.66, on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 555.7 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways (Neutral) signal January 2nd, 2019.

HUI PPI Flat at + 169.69, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 90.00, Slow 82.78 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Up 2 to 423; Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 415, Buy