Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose modestly Tuesday, July 17th on higher volume. Breadth was narrow. The NASDAQ hit a new all-time high Tuesday. The S&P 500 hit a higher high for the rising trend-channel from April 2018. All of our key trend-finder indicators remain on Buy signals tonight. Stocks are reaching overbought levels per their Daily Full Stochastic indicators. Stocks can rise for a while when overbought. It looks as if the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and small cap Russell 2000 are all inside the final rally phase of a large degree trend-channel from 2015. If so, they have further upside before topping and ending the Bull market from 2015. We have updated charts for the major stock indices in tonight’s report.
Gold fell, which increases the odds they are dropping in subwave c-down of b-down, the alternate mapping. Mining stocks were flat. Once we get new Buy signals in our HUI Mining stock key indicators, the odds will rise that the coming significant Bull market is starting. They remain on Sells tonight.
Precious metals are finishing patterns that will lead to a powerful and lengthy rally. Gold is base building and has formed a large Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom, a rounded bottom. This is an accumulation pattern.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, July 17th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, July 17th, rising 8 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 21, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power rose 2 to 387 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 377, telling us Tuesday’s move in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Tuesday, July 17th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold and Silver fell and Mining stoc ks were flat Tuesday, July 17th. They moved to a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, July 17th, Demand Power fell 1 to 380 while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 405, telling us Tuesday’s HUI move was weak.
DJIA PPI Rose 2 to + 70.17, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 48.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 56.11 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 50.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 83.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 80.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 8 Positive + 21, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 2 to 387, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 376 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Rose to negative -23.23
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2946.15
Plunge Protection Team Indicator -8.85, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 337.8 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 67 New Lows 26
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Friday, July 6th, 2018, and remain there July 17th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 17th. On Tuesday July 17th, Demand Power rose 4 to 428, while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 403, telling us Tuesday’s rise was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 27.2 on Tuesday, July 17th.
NDX PPI Rose 5 to + 273.27 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 71.43 Slow 65.24 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 79.76 Slow 79.76 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 27.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Rise 4 to 428, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 403 Buy
RUT PPI Rose 1 + 194.89 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 114.60 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 178.47, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 43.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 1 to 380; Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 405, Sell