Today’s Market Comments:
Strange day in the stock market Tuesday, July 24th. Lots of divergences. The NASDAQ 100 rose 34 points, however the NASDAQ Composite fell a point. The Composite and NDX hit new all time highs intraday Tuesday. The Composite then reversed all the day’s gains, the NDX did not, and closed at a new all-time high. Very weird. Our NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal from a Buy. The Industrials rose almost 200 points, and the Trannies fell 165. Weird. The S&P 500 rose 13, but the small cap Russell 2000 fell 18. The small cap Russell 2000 looks to be forming a small Bullish Ascending Triangle that started in June, yet our RUT Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a Sell signal Tuesday. Breadth is clearly narrowing, and we are seeing growing Bearish divergences between the major stock indices and their 10 day moving average Advance/Decline Line Indicators. The McClellan Oscillator, a measure of Breadth, worsened, yet New 52 Week NYSE Highs rose to 96. No cohesion in the market, which is typically not a good sign. Our take is stocks are finishing wave v-up of a rising Bullish trend-channel from 2015. As this trend approaches its end, breadth should continue to narrow.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks are putting the final touches on a corrective decline within a large degree rising trend. Our key indicators for Metals and Miners remain on a Sell. Once they turn to Buys, we could see a new major Bull market begin in these markets. This Bull market should be underway by the autumn 2018. This should offer an excellent trading and market timing investing opportunity.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal July 9th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, July 24th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Thursday, July 5th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, July 24th, rising 3 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 18, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power rose 1 to 385 Tuesday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 377, telling us Tuesday’s move in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Tuesday, July 24th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold and Silver were flat, and Minin g stocks rose slightly Tuesday, July 24th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, July 24th, Demand Power rose 4 to 383 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 405, telling us Monday’s HUI rise was moderate.
DJIA PPI Rose 2 to + 72.07, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 49.33 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 56.67 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 80.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 70.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 3 to Positive + 18, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 1 to 385, Supply Pressure Rose 1 to 377 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to negative -59.19
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2818.26
Plunge Protection Team Indicator -3.03, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 115.7 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 96 New Lows 40
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sideways signal Tuesday, July 24th, 2018, and remain there July 24th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on July 24th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Buy positions signal Friday, July 6th and remains there July 24th. On Tuesday July 24th, Demand Power rose 1 to 419, while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 407, telling us Tuesday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal July 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -1.4 on Tuesday, July 24th.
NDX PPI Rose 2 to + 271.92 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 58.33 Slow 64.52 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 52.38 Slow 67.86 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 1.4 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 1 to 419, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 407 Buy
RUT PPI Fell 6 to + 191.64 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 143.3 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 176.95, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.00, Slow 23.89 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Rose 4 to 383; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 405, Sell