Today’s Market Comments:

Stocks rose sharply early, then gave up all their gains, they closed slightly up Tuesday, December 18th. The market is tracking a small degree wave {ii} up of {3} down. The uncertainty of this wave {ii} up corrective rally is tied into the uncertainty of what the Fed is going to do tomorrow with short-term interest rates. Oil plunged, has crashed, stocks are plunging, Housing is tanking, car sales are hurting, job growth has stalled, corporate revenues are uninspiring. Yet the Fed may raise short-term interest rates again tomorrow, to go along with its Quantitative Tightening policy. This is normally a positive seasonal period for the stock market, however the power of the new Bear market is overwhelming positive seasonal cycles. Our key trend-finder indicators remain on Sells tonight.

 

Precious metals were flat Tuesday, while Mining stocks rose. Miners may be starting the next rally phase charts have been expecting. Our Mining stock key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal.

 

 

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal December 4th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, December 18th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Tuesday, December 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on December 4th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Tuesday, December 18th, rising 3 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -30. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power fell 1 to 374 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 455, telling us Tuesday’s rise in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal December 6th, and remains there Tuesday, December 18th, 2018. 

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold and Silver were flat and Miners rose Tuesday. They generated a Buy signal Friday, December 7th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal December 7th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on November 16th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal Wednesday, December 12th. On Tuesday, December 18th, Demand Power rose 7 to 426 while Supply Pressure fell 5 to 396, telling us Tuesday’s HUI rise was moderate.

DJIA PPI Flat at negative -27.26, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 16.67 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 0.00 Slow 11.67 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 0.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 6.67

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 3.33

Secondary Trend Indicator Up 3 to Negative -30, On a Sell

Demand Power Fell 1 to 374, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 455 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative – 183.81

McClellan Osc Summation Index – 865.82

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 14.70, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 865.82 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 3 New Lows 737

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Friday, December 14th, 2018, and remain there December 18th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sellon December 14th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on December 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on December 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Sell positions signal Friday, December 14th and remains there December 17th. On Tuesday December 18th, Demand Power rose 1 to 428, while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 458, telling us the rise was mild.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal December 14th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to – 25.0 on Tuesday, December 18th.

 

NDX PPI Up 2 to 113.58 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 7.14 Slow 18.57 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 5.95 Slow 15.24 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 25.0 On a Sell

NDX Demand Power Up 1 to 428, Supply Pressure Fell 3 to 458 Sell

 

RUT PPI Flat at 104.47 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 659.4 On a Sell

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal December 7th, 2018.

HUI PPI Rose 3 to + 174.50, on a Buy

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 85.00, Slow 68.33 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Up 7 to 426; Supply Pressure Fell 5 to 396, Buy