Today’s Market Comments:

U.S. Stocks markets are closed tomorrow, July 4th, in observance of Independence Day. Our next report will be Thursday, July 5th. Have a safe and enjoyable holiday!

 

Stocks had a strange day Tuesday, July 3rd, in that prices fell sharply, however the internals were positive. Advancers exceeded Decliners and New Highs exceeded New Lows. We got a new Buy signal in our Intermediate tern Secondary Trend Indicator. Our short-term key trend-finder indicators remained the same, on a Sideways signal. This all fits the wave mapping that we believe is occurring, that since June 25th, Blue Chip stocks have formed a sideways symmetrical triangle, a pause, within wave e-down of the wave iv down large triangle from January 2018. Wave e-down is the final subwave for this triangle. The decline from early June through June 25th was subwave {a} down, with the sideways symmetrical triangle since then wave {b}, and next will be wave {c} down to complete e-down and iv down.

 

Our HUI mining stocks key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal from a Sell, as the HUI 30 day Stochastic triggered a new Buy signal, at odds with the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator.

 

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal July 2nd, 2018 and remain there Monday, July 2nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Monday, July 2nd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, July 3rd, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 6, needing to rise above the positive + 5 threshold for the new Buy.

Demand Power fell 1 to 378 Tuesday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 390, telling us Tuesday’s decline in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal Wednesday, June 27th, and remains there Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silve r and Mining stocks rose Tuesday, July 3rd. They moved to a Sideways signal Tuesday, July 3rd, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal July 3rd, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, July 3rd, Demand Power rose 6 to 387 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 401, telling us Tuesday’s HUI rise was moderate.

DJIA PPI Fell 1 to + 53.23, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 30.00 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 25.56 On a Buy

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 30.00

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 33.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 46.67

Secondary Trend Indicator Rose 2 to Positive + 6, On a Buy

Demand Power Fell 1 to 378, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 390 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Rose to negative – 10.82

McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2551.81

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.69, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 43.0 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 70 New Lows 27

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sideways signal Monday, July 2nd, 2018, and remain there July 3rd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on July 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 2nd, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Monday, June 25th and remains there July 3rd. On Tuesday July 3rd, Demand Power fell 4 to 407, while Supply Pressure rose 5 to 424, telling us Tuesday’s decline was moderate.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal June 25th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to negative -12.4 on Tuesday, July 3rd.

 

NDX PPI Fell 4 to + 234.47 On a Buy

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 33.00 Slow 30.60 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 25.00 Slow 18.00 On a Buy

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -12.4 On a Sell

NDX Demand Power Fell 4 to 407, Supply Pressure Up 5 to 424 Sell

 

RUT PPI Flat at + 190.85 on a Sell

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 81.90 On a Buy

 

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

 

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal July 3rd, 2018.

HUI PPI Rose 2 to 181.27, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 55.00, Slow 28.33 on a Buy

HUI Demand Power Up 6 to 387; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 401, Sell