Today’s Market Comments:
For the third day in a row, stocks fell hard at the open, then crawled back the rest of the day, ending down. The Industrials and Trannies ended down sharply. The S&P 500, NDX and small caps ended down mildly.
Dow Jones and Co. announced that it was bouncing GE from the Dow 30 Industrials Average, and replacing the historical powerhouse with Walgreens. Doing the math, the owner of the Wall Street Journal now has Walmart andWalgreens in the Dow 30. If “Humpty Dumpty Sat on a Wall” were a stock, would that be a strong candidate to replace the next Dow icon bounced for reason of “what have you done for me lately?” Can’t have losers in the Dow. The Dow 30 is looking heavy with healthcare stocks: MRK, JNJ, PFE, UNH, TRV and now Walgreens. That is one-fifth of the large cap average. What does that say about modern society?
Back to the market, Tuesday’s decline was the large price move the recent small change in the McClellan Oscillator was expecting. The Industrials’ 50 day moving average stopped Tuesday’s decline, is support for the moment. There were no changes to our key indicators from Tuesday’s price action. Our Secondary Trend Indicator is very close to generating a Sell signal. It has been on a Buy for the past ten months.
The wave mapping remains as it was yesterday. It looks as if large degree triangles for wave iv down of a large trend-channel from 2015 are either completing wave e-down to finish the patterns, or are correcting the first small degree rally leg within large degree wave v-up.
The stock market generated a new official Hindenburg Omen potential stock market crash signal Monday, June 18th, as there was a second H.O. observation in as many days. This means caution is warranted at this time as the stock market sits at an unhealthy internal condition.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal June 14th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, June 19th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, May 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on June 14th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Tuesday, June 19th, losing 9 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative – 4, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.
Demand Power fell 4 to 392 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 5 to 377, telling us Tuesday’s net decline in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Wednesday, May 2nd, and remains there Tuesday, June 19th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silve r and Miners fell slightly Tuesday, June 19th, and are finishing their Bullish triangles. They moved to a Sideways signal Friday, June 15th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal May 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Tuesday, June 19th, Demand Power fell 2 to 383 while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 402, telling us Tuesday’s HUI move was mild.
DJIA PPI Fell 2 to + 66.64, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00 Slow 58.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 60.56 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 40.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 16.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 10.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 9 to Negative -4, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 4 to 392, Supply Pressure Rose 5 to 377 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to negative – 35.00
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 3181.65
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 6.62, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 115.7 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 59 New Lows 83
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Thursday, April 26th, 2018, and remain there June 19th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on May 23rd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on June 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Monday, May 7th and remains there June 19th. On Tuesday June 19th, Demand Power fell 3 to 419, while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 399, telling us Tuesday’s decline was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal May 7th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 12.2 on Tuesday, June 19th.
NDX PPI Fell 2 to + 258.10 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 60.00 Slow 62.80 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 51.00 Slow 60.40 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 12.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 3 to 419, Supply Pressure Rose 3 to 399 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at + 201.34 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 140.10 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal May 24th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 180.04, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 35.00, Slow 46.67 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 2 to 383; Supply Pressure Rose 2 to 402, Sell