Today’s Market Comments:
The Industrials rose to a new all-time high Tuesday, intraday, then retreated in the afternoon about half the rise, then finished up into the close, but below the intraday highs. It is possible they topped on our Phi mate turn date, then started the next leg down in the afternoon with a corrective bounce. It will be interesting to watch price action the remainder of this week. The S&P 500 fell slightly, techs fell, and small caps continued to take it on the chin. Trannies dropped as much as the Industrials rose. Oddly, in spite of the rise in the Industrials, NYSE Declining stocks exceeded Advancing issues 3 to 2. Further, NYSE Hew Highs dropped in half with New Lows remaining significant. This is not the stuff of a strong solid healthy stock market. The stock market remains on an 18 observation Hindenburg Omen. This market is fragile. GE got its debt rating reduced to junk. The U.S. Second Civil War is heating up as we approach the Mid-term elections. The delusional Fed Chief Powell said today that everything is coming up roses.
Our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Sell, while the Blue Chip Purchasing Power Indicator remains on a Buy. Lots of Bearish divergences all over the place, as shown in our weekend report.
Gold and Mining stocks rose sharply Tuesday. This may be part of the next Bull market. Patterns for Mining stock ETFs suggest Miners have bottomed and a strong rally is imminent. Russia is arming Syria, and tensions are rising with Israel. Global stock indices are warning trouble is coming to international markets and economies. The Head of the IMF agrees.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 25th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, October 2nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 2nd, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Tuesday, October 2nd, weakening by 3 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 10, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 2 to 375 Tuesday while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 383, telling us Tuesday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Exit Long Signal September 26th, and remains there Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold and Miners rose sharply, while Silver rose modestly Tuesday. They generated a Sideways signal Friday, September 28th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal September 28th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Tuesday, October 2nd, Demand Power rose 8 to 409 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 402, telling us Tuesday’s HUI rise was strong, with about half the buying from shorts covering.
DJIA PPI flat at 90.28, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 72.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 63.33 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 76.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 3 to Positive + 10, On a Buy
Demand Power fell 2 to 375, Supply Pressure up 2 to 383 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 97.81
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1388.31
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.4, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -195.3 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 43 New Lows 148
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there October 2nd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there October 2nd. On Tuesday October 2nd, Demand Power fell 2 to 410, while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 412, telling us Tuesday’s decline was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 8.0 on Tuesday, October 2nd.
NDX PPI Fell 1 to + 277.27 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 48.81 Slow 53.81 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 52.38 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 8.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 410, Supply Pressure Up 3 to 412 Neutral
RUT PPI Fell 4 to 180.88 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 242.7 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 3 to + 156.51, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00, Slow 43.33 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 8 to 409; Supply Pressure fell 4 to 402, Neutral