Today’s Market Comments:

It is starting to get ugly. Amazon.com (AMZN) is crashing, down 27% from its September 1st, 2,050 high to today’s 1,495 low. This Bull market driver is collapsing. GE is expected to discontinue its dividend next week. Who would have ever thought this was possible? Further, October has now become the most volatile month in over 100 years.

This is on the heels of an unprecedented 19 observation Hindenburg Omen that started in mid-August and continued right up to the October top. This Hindenburg Omen warned us something awful was coming. 14 observation days in a row? Ridiculous.

 

Our Phi mate turn date in July identified the start of the final wave v-up for the Bull market from 2015 and 2009. Our next phi mate turn date on October 3rd, identified the top.

 

Our Blue Chip and NASDAQ 100 key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal Monday, October 29th, after another losing day. Intraday, stocks fell over 800 points from mid-day highs to late day lows, ending down. There are two legitimate ways to label the stock plunge from early October, and we show both in tonight’s report. One scenario has stocks finishing the first wave down of the new Bear market, wave 1-down. If so, a fairly strong rebound corrective rally, wave 2-up should soon start and take stocks higher for a few weeks. Then a crash would occur, wave 3-down. The other mapping scenario is that a crash is underway, wave 3-down is starting, and wave {3} down of 3-down is next. This is a Grand Supercycle degree Bear market starting, and such a major degree trend Bear market should begin with the kind of power we are seeing. Caution is warranted.

 

New NYSE Lows have run above 79 for 40 consecutive trading days, which is an astonishing and dangerous condition.

Our Mining stock key trend-finder indicators are on a Sell signal Monday.

Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 26th, 2018 and remain there Monday, October 29th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Friday, October 26th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on October 24th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on October 24th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.

Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Monday, October 29th, rising 1 point (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -25. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.

Demand Power up 1 to 374 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 465, telling us Monday’s decline in Blue Chips was weak, more of a sideways move. Deep pockets buying was present. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal October 4th, and remains there Monday, October 29th, 2018. The plunge came right after this Sell signal.

The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “OFF” signal on October 25th, which means the PPT is not likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. 

Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.

Gold, Silver and Miners fell Monday . They generated a Sell signal Thursday, October 25th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal October 24th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 25th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Wednesday, October 24th. On Monday, October 29th, Demand Power fell 3 to 398 while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 429, telling us Monday’s HUI decline was mild.

DJIA PPI fell 3 to 5.12, on a Sell

DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 23.33 Slow 23.33 On a Sell

DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 28.33 On a Sell

DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 23.33

DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 23.33

DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 30.00

Secondary Trend Indicator Up 1 to Negative -25, On a Sell

Demand Power Up 1 to 374, Supply Pressure rose 4 to 465 Sell

McClellan Oscillator Flat at Negative – 120.79

McClellan Osc Summation Index -1318.65

Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 13.33, on an “OFF”  

DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 406.3 on a Sell

NYSE New Highs 18 New Lows 401

Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:

The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Sell signal Friday, October 26th, 2018, and remain there October 29th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 26th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on October 24th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sellsignal on October 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.

 

The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Short positions signal Thursday, October 4th and remains there October 26th. On Monday October 29th, Demand Power fell 1 to 417, while Supply Pressure rose 9 to 497, telling us the decline was strong with deep pockets intervention supporting prices.

 

The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal October 4th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to negative -14.4 on Monday, October 29th.

 

NDX PPI Fell 12 to 144.69 On a Sell

NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 10.71 Slow 7.62 On a Sell

NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 16.67 Slow 14.52 On a Sell

NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -14.4 On a Sell

NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 417, Supply Pressure Up 9 to 497 Sell

RUT PPI Fell 1 to 133.23 on a Buy

RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 325.9 On a Sell

Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:

Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 25th, 2018.

HUI PPI Flat at + 160.02, on a Sell

HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00, Slow 58.89 on a Sell

HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 398; Supply Pressure Up 2 to 429, Sell