Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed Wednesday, August 22nd, the Industrials down, S&P 500 flat, and techs and small caps up. Our key trend-finder indicators are now on Buy signals for Blue Chips, Techs and Small Caps as the NDX Purchasing Power Indicator finally joined the ranks. Volume was one of the lowest in 2018. Stocks are inside wave v-up, the final rally phase of a long-term rising trend-channel from 2015. The odds favor more upside ahead. The S&P 500 looks to be finishing a Rising Bearish Wedge pattern from May 2018. If so, the upside price target is 2925ish. The Russell 2000 has broken out sharply above the upper boundary of a multi-month sideways triangle pattern, telling us it is headed higher. The upside price target from this pattern is 1780 to 1790ish.
Mining stocks and Metals are deep oversold and are due to begin a major Bull market. Patterns are completing corrections from 2016. Once we get a new Buy signal in our HUI key trend-finder indicators, we will have confirmation that a major rising trend is starting in Gold, Silver and Mining stocks.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal August 17th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, August 22nd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 17th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Wednesday, August 22nd, losing 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 27, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 2 to 389 Wednesday while Supply Pressure was flat at 368, telling us Wednesday’s move in Blue Chips was weak. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, August 17th, and remains there Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners were Flat We dnesday . They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Wednesday, August 22nd, Demand Power rose 4 to 378 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 431, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was mild.
DJIA PPI Flat at + 80.96, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 80.00 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 65.56 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 76.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 73.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 46.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 2 to Positive + 27, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 2 to 389, Supply Pressure Flat at 368 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Positive + 97.43
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2277.57
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 7.52, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 314.8 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 105 New Lows 28
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 22nd, 2018, and remain there August 22nd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 22nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 21st, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Exit Short positions signal Tuesday, August 21st and remains there August 22nd. On Wednesday August 22nd, Demand Power rose 1 to 413, while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 410, telling us Wednesday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 4.8 on Wednesday, August 22nd.
NDX PPI Rose 2 to + 265.50 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 55.95 Slow 51.67 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 63.10 Slow 54.05 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 4.8 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 1 to 413, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 410 Neutral
RUT PPI Flat at 196.21 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 233.6 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 156.14, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 5.00, Slow 6.11 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 4 to 378; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 431, Sell