Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks took the day off Wednesday, August 8th, as the Big Dogs hung out at the Jersey shore. There were no changes to our key trend-finder indicators, remaining on a Buy signal. Volume was mild, and directional Volume, Breadth and Price was flat. The S&P 500 is 16 points away from hitting a new all-time high, which would confirm that wave v-up is underway, a large degree rally to complete the Bull market from 2015. Small caps need 17 more points to hit a new all-time high. It is important to track wave v-up carefully because once it tops, a major Bear market should begin. The Fed is withdrawing billions from the economy each month, which is stunting growth. Tariffs are starting to hit small businesses. Rising interest rates are slowing the real estate market, and also to follow will be a hit to new construction. Employment growth has stalled. The slowdown is beginning. Charts are warning a recession is approaching.
Mining stocks are finishing a corrective wave c-down of 2-down. They are deep oversold. Once this corrective decline completes, a powerful Bull market will begin. Precious metals should follow Mining stocks. A new Buy signal in our HUI key trend-finder indicators will market the start of the next strong rally leg.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal August 6th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, August 8th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, August 3rd. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on August 6th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on July 9th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Wednesday, August 8th, falling 5 (out of a possible 9 points), positive + 29, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 3 to 392 Wednesday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 375, telling us Wednesday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Friday, July 6th, and remains there Wednesday, August 8th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Mining stocks were up slightly Wednesday, August 8th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, July 13th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal July 13th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on June 15th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Short signal. On Wednesday, August 8th, Demand Power rose 1 to 378 while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 415, telling us Wednesday’s HUI move was mild.
DJIA PPI Flat at + 79.71, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 56.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 70.00 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 56.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 63.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 70.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 5 to Positive + 29, On a Buy
Demand Power Fell 3 to 392, Supply Pressure Up 1 to 375 Buy
McClellan Oscillator Fell to negative – 22.98
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2277.05
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 1.54, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 117.2 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 89 New Lows 42
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Tuesday, August 7th, 2018, and remain there August 8th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on August 2nd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 7th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Buy positions signal Friday, August 3rd and remains there August 8th. On Wednesday August 8th, Demand Power fell 2 to 425, while Supply Pressure was flat at 410, telling us Wednesday’s rise was mild.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal August 6th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 2.6 on Wednesday, August 8th.
NDX PPI Flat at + 273.64 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.67 Slow 56.67 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 76.67 Slow 70.00 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 2.6 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 2 to 425, Supply Pressure Flat at 410 Buy
RUT PPI Flat at + 190.74 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 31.2 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal July 13th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at 171.23, on a Sell
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 25.00, Slow 22.22 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 1 to 378; Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 415, Sell