Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks oscillated all day Wednesday, October 17th, closing flat to slightly down. The price action generated a new Buy signal in our Blue Chip three-component trend-finder indicator. Techs and Blue Chips are now on a short-term Buy signal. Declining stocks exceeded advancing issues. Stocks appear to be rising inside corrective wave 2-up, retracing a portion of the recent plunge which was wave 1-down. Once complete, wave 3-down will take stocks down sharply.
New NYSE Lows have run above 79 for 32 consecutive trading days, which is an astonishing and dangerous condition.
Precious metals and Mining stocks were flat Wednesday, remaining on a Buy signal.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal October 17th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, October 17th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, October 12th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 17th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 17th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Sell signal Wednesday, October 10th, and remains there Wednesday, October 17th, falling 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative -1. It will need to rise above positive + 5 for a new Buy signal.
Demand Power fell 3 to 378 Wednesday while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 424, telling us Wednesday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal October 4th, and remains there Wednesday, October 17th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved to an “ON” signal on October 11th, which means the PPT is likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “ON.” This means there is likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold, Silver and Miners were flat We dnesday. They generated a Buy signal Thursday, October 11th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal October 11th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long signal Thursday, October 11th. On Wednesday, October 17th, Demand Power fell 3 to 412 while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 408, telling us Wednesday’s HUI move was mild.
DJIA PPI flat at 47.89, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30.00 Slow 13.33 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 36.67 Slow 12.78 On a Buy
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 30.00
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 43.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 83.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 2 to Negative -1, On a Sell
Demand Power fell 3 to 378, Supply Pressure rose 2 to 424 Sell
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 49.99
McClellan Osc Summation Index -355.59
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 35.11, on an “ON”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 469.5 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 15 New Lows 129
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Tuesday, October 16th, 2018, and remain there October 17th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon October 16th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buysignal on October 16th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on October 16th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Short positions signal Thursday, October 4th and remains there October 17th. On Wednesday October 17th, Demand Power fell 1 to 418, while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 451, telling us the rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal October 4th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It fell to negative -21.2 on Wednesday, October 17th.
NDX PPI Flat at 218.12 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 20.24 Slow 11.19 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 29.76 Slow 14.29 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -21.2 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 418, Supply Pressure Fell 2 to 451 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 161.92 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 333.3 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal October 11th, 2018.
HUI PPI Flat at + 168.88, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 85.00, Slow 64.44 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 3 to 412; Supply Pressure Up 2 to 408, Buy