Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks rose Wednesday, May 23rd, after being down early. The rally in techs was strong, and our NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Indicator moved back to a Buy signal. Our three component key trend-finder indicators for Blue Chips and Techs remain on a Neutral signal Wednesday. The Volatility Index is dropping back to complacency levels, down to 12.58 Wednesday. There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Wednesday, suggesting a large price move is likely over the coming days. The major stock indices formed large Triangle patterns from January 2018. They either have finished them and a significant upside breakout will soon begin, or they are finishing the final subwavee-down of the large degree triangles. The triangles are subwave ivdown of a large rising trend-channel from 2015. Wave v-up will follow these triangles, a large rally leg that will complete the Bull market from 2015. The Fed plans to continue to raise short-term interest rates, and at some point, this will be contractionary, as their quantitative tightening program currently is. The impact will hit the stock market at the conclusion of wave v-up.
Gold and Silver are finishing sideways triangle patterns that should lead to an upside breakout. The U.S. Dollar may have completed its initial rising trend and may be about to correct lower. Oil is inside a large degree rising trend. U.S. Bonds are close to bottoming, and a rally back toward 150 could soon start.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal May 18th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, May 23rd. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Friday, May 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on May 18th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on May 7th, 2018. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Wednesday, May 23rd, rising 2 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 16, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell.
Demand Power rose 1 to 395 Wednesday while Supply Pressure fell 1 to 373, telling us Wednesday’s rise in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Wednesday, May 2nd, and remains there Wednesday, May 23rd, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold and Si lver fell and Miners rose Wednesday, May 23rd, working through the final moves they need to complete Bullish triangles. Silver’s triangle may be complete. They moved to a Sideways signal Monday, April 30th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal April 30th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on March 26th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 16th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal. On Wednesday, May 23rd, Demand Power rose 3 to 391 while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 396, telling us Wednesday’s HUI rise was moderate.
DJIA PPI Rose 2 to + 57.66, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 62.67 On a Buy
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 73.33 Slow 78.33 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 66.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 60.00
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 63.33
Secondary Trend Indicator Up 2 to Positive + 16, On a Buy
Demand Power Rose 1 to 395, Supply Pressure Fell 1 to 373 Buy
McClellan Oscillator fell to positive + 39.36
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 2449.04
Plunge Protection Team Indicator – 8.38, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator + 259.0 on a Buy
NYSE New Highs 36 New Lows 55
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated aSideways signal Thursday, April 26th, 2018, and remain there May 23rd, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buyon May 23rd, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on May 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on April 24th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anEnter Long positions signal Monday, May 7th and remains there May 23rd. On Wednesday May 23rd, Demand Power rose 3 to 422, while Supply Pressure fell 4 to 404, telling us Wednesday’s rise was moderate.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal May 7th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It fell to positive + 11.2 on Wednesday, May 23rd.
NDX PPI Rose 5 to + 227.76 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 56.00 Slow 55.80 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 55.00 Slow 56.60 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 11.2 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Up 3 to 422, Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 404 Buy
RUT PPI Up 1 to +186.15 on a Buy
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 240.1 On a Buy
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal February 27th, 2018.
HUI PPI Rose 1 to 183.94, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 40.00, Slow 40.00 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Up 3 to 391; Supply Pressure Fell 4 to 396, Sell