Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks fell Wednesday, September 26th, the day the Fed raised short-term interest rates by a quarter percent. This raises the cost of borrowing for most consumers looking for mortgages, car loans, and home equity loans, and small businesses with lines of credit. Our Blue Chip NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator moved to a new Sell signal. The Blue Chip Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Neutral signal from a Buy. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators remain on a Neutral signal. Stock indices are in the process of topping. There is a 17 observation Hindenburg Omen on the clock, warning the stock market sits in a fragile state at this time.
Our HUI Mining stocks key trend-finder indicators remain on a Buy signal Wednesday.
The Stock Market sits at a high probability trend turn cycle point given the Fibonacci Cluster turn window and Phi mate turn date we discussed in this past weekend’s report.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Neutral signal September 25th, 2018 and remain there Wednesday, September 26th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, and remains there Wednesday, September 26th, falling 6 points (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 6, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 5 to 377 Wednesday while Supply Pressure rose 3 to 382, telling us Wednesday’s decline in Blue Chips was moderate. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Thursday, September 13th, and remains there Wednesday, September 26th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Sil ver, Gold and Miners fell Wednesday. They generated a Buy signal Wednesday, September 19th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal September 18th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On May 29th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to a Exit Short signal Wednesday, September 19th. On Wednesday, September 26th, Demand Power fell 5 to 402 while Supply Pressure rose 8 to 407, telling us Wednesday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI fell 2 to 87.90, on a Buy
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 66.67 Slow 80.67 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 76.11 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 66.67
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 43.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 26.67
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 6 to Positive + 6, On a Buy
Demand Power fell 5 to 377, Supply Pressure Up 3 to 382 Neutral
McClellan Oscillator Fell to Negative – 104.44
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 1688.34
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 0.73, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator -123.9 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 60 New Lows 111
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 20th, 2018, and remain there September 26th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 20th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on September 20th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on July 6th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to anExit Short positions signal Thursday, September 20th and remains there September 26th. On Wednesday September 26th, Demand Power fell 1 to 415, while Supply Pressure was flat at 414, telling us Wednesday’s move was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal September 20th, 2018, and needs to fall below negative – 5.0 for a new Sell. It rose to positive + 10.0 on Wednesday, September 26th.
NDX PPI Flat at + 273.01 On a Buy
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.57 Slow 56.43 On a Buy
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 50.00 Slow 59.05 On a Buy
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator + 10.0 On a Buy
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 415, Supply Pressure Flat at 414 Neutral
RUT PPI Fell 4 to 188.86 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 123.6 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal September 19th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 3 to + 153.71, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 45.00, Slow 43.89 on a Buy
HUI Demand Power Fell 5 to 402; Supply Pressure up 8 to 407, Neutral