JV Research LLC. Thursday, March 15, 2018
Technically, this market was poised to trade higher this week, with solid “W” Stochastic patterns for the DOW and S&P and even though the NASDAQ and Russell were extended after a 7 day upside run, I and many other anal-ysts, figured that while the NASDAQ and Russell corrected a bit, the markets would bolstered by a nice run-up in the DOW and S&P trading higher. Instead, so far this week we got 3 choppy, sloppy tradingdays with the DOW off 700pts, the S&P testing Major Support at 2750 and if the Momentum Funds, did not continue to mindlessly pile into the Tech and Small Caps names of the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, things could be much, much worse.
So how did we go from such a pleasant rosy scenario, that was Technically and Fundamentally sound to looking at the possibility of another pullback down to DOW 24,200 and S&P 2700, once again? I know that it would be easy to blame the President’s Trade and Tariffs positions and the constant turmoil from the White House for the markets unease, but like it or not, with the Goldilocks scenario completely intact, the only reason that averages are not higher, is Washington and until the dust settles over Trade, Tariffs and the merry-go-round in the White House stops, the markets are in for a tough time.
Overnight the Global markets traded slightly higher and in early trading the DOW is up 20pts. The Yield on the 10 Yr is holding steady at around 2.82%, the Dollar is flat and so are Commodities, with Oil and Gold holding $61 and $1320 respectively. Today we have the Weekly Jobless Claims, Empire and Philly Fed Manufacturing reports all out at 8:30, followed by the March Home Builders Index at 10:00. Yesterday’s weak Retail Sales and benign Inflation reports, have taken Yields down and the Bond markets fears of 3 or 4 Rate Hikes in 2018, have subsided. Overall, the markets have so far squandered a good opportunity this week and if not for the NASDAQ and Russell, the markets might have been in real trouble.
I am working from 80 Broad and can be reached at 212 -417-8062
Today’s Early Markets
DOW Futures— up 10.00 London – up 13.58
S&P – up 100 DAX – up 37.76
GOLD—$1320 Apr Nikkei — up 26.89
OIL— $61.00 Apr HangSeng — up 106.65
DOW RESISTANCE 25,850 S&P RESISTANCE 2760
DOW SUPPORT: 24,600 S&P SUPPORT: 2750/2745/2740
$NASDAQ RESISTANCE 7530
$NASDAQ SUPPORT 7460