JV Research LLC. Tuesday, March 06, 2018

 

Market Summary

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On February 27th which was just last Tuesday,the DOW had rebounded back to 25,800 and the stage was

set for the DOW and the rest of the averages, to move higher, unfortunately, by 4:00pm the DOW had dropped

over 400 pts to close at 25,400 on some ill advised comments from the New Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The

averages traded down all day Thursday with the help of surprise action on Tariffs, by the President and by 11:00

Friday, the DOW was back down to 24,200 and things were looking bleak. Fortunately a big inflow of cash into

the Tech’s, saved the day and that rally continued into Monday, with the Indexes recovering about ½ of the 2018

losses.

Technically, we are right in the middle of a Big Picture range of DOW 24,000 – 26,000, S&P 2650 -2750 on

the S&P and 7100 – 7400 for the NASDAQ and to make is simple, if we break through the highs we go higher

and if we break the lows we go lower. Ideally, since the “Goldilocks” scenario for Global Growth remains intact

there’s no fundamental reason why earnings should not increase and justify higher Equity Prices, so what’s the

problem. Once again, I’ll remind everyone, that the Markets Don’t Like Surprises and with uncertainty now

surrounding Federal Reserve Policy in 2018 and with the Circus Maximus or Trumpus, now playing in the nation’s

capital, expect the extreme Volatility to continue for awhile, so get use to it.

Overnight the Global markets rebounded, as fears over a Trade War subsided, when the President’s Flunkies

from Goldman and a few Republican Senators, said that putting Tariffs on everyone, might not be a good idea,

plus the President mentioned that U.S. might not place Tariff on Canada and Mexico, IF, we got a better deal

on NAFTA. How this plays out is anyone’s guess, but for now the markets are happy and it looks like the

rally will continue this morning, with the DOW up over 100pts. The Yield on the 10 Yr is flat at 2.86%, the Dollar

is lower and Commodities are higher, with Oil testing the $63.00 level.

Today all we have on tap are the January Factory Orders out at 10:00 and several Fed Speakers, who will

explain the the Fed Chair didn’t mean what he said last week, except that he did mean it.

I am working from 80 Broad and can be reached at 212 -417-8062

 

Today’s Early Markets

DOW Futures— up 40.00 London – down 15.58

S&P – up 100 DAX – down 27.76

GOLD—$1320 Apr Nikkei — down 320.89

OIL— $62.87 March HangSeng — down 423.65

 

DOW RESISTANCE 25,000 S&P RESISTANCE 2730/2740

DOW SUPPORT: 24,800 S&P SUPPORT: 2700

 

$NASDAQ RESISTANCE 7380

$NASDAQ SUPPORT 7300