Today’s Market Comments:
Stocks were mixed to flat Tuesday, October 9th, however Trannies fell hard. The market attempted to rally Tuesday, but the effort was weak. The stock market has the “feel” and look of a market rolling over. The Rising Bearish Wedges are complete, and it looks like wave v-up for the rally from 2015 has ended. All of our key trend-finder indicators remain on Sell signals Tuesday. What needs to be watched is if the intermediate term trend identifier, our Secondary Trend Indicator, moves to a new Sell signal over the next few days. It is very close. There is a 19 observation Hindenburg Omen on the clock, which tells us the stock market sits in a fragile condition at this time. New NYSE 52 Week Lows continue to remain far above 70, a level which is considered high and dangerous if seen over several consecutive days. NYSE New Lows have been above 79 for 26 consecutive days. This is a red flag. The stock market sees trouble ahead.
Precious metals and mining stocks are finishing the corrective declines from 2016. Once complete, a powerful long-term rally should begin. We update charts in tonight’s report.
Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sell signal October 5th, 2018 and remain there Tuesday, October 9th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Sell signal Thursday, October 4th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on October 5th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Sell on September 25th, 2018. When these three indicators agree, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months’ time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal.
Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Tuesday, July 3rd, a previous Phi Mate turn date, and remains there Tuesday, October 9th, losing 4 points (out of a possible 9 points), to negative – 2, needing to fall below the negative – 5 threshold for the new Sell.
Demand Power fell 1 to 367 Monday while Supply Pressure rose 2 to 396, telling us Tuesday’s move in Blue Chips was mild. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Short Signal October 4th, and remains there Tuesday, October 9th, 2018.
The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an “OFF” signal on March 21st, which means the PPT is not as likely to support the markets while this indicator remains on an “OFF.” This means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time, or if there is it will not be effective. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on an “On” signal) and when it moves to a Neutral or Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT’s interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends.
Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months.
Gold and Silver rose, Miners fell on Tuesday. They generated a Sideways signal Friday, September 28th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal September 28th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 19th. When these two indicators agree, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short signal Tuesday, October 9th. On Tuesday, October 9th, Demand Power fell 5 to 395 while Supply Pressure rose 4 to 409, telling us Tuesday’s HUI decline was moderate.
DJIA PPI fell 1 to 80.38, on a Sell
DJIA 30 Day Stochastic Fast 53.33 Slow 66.00 On a Sell
DJIA 14 Day Stochastic Fast 46.67 Slow 55.00 On a Sell
DJIA % Above 30 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 10 Day Average 53.33
DJIA % Above 5 Day Average 40.00
Secondary Trend Indicator Fell 4 to Negative -2, On a Buy
Demand Power rose 1 to 367, Supply Pressure up 2 to 396 Sell
McClellan Oscillator Rose to Negative – 147.48
McClellan Osc Summation Index + 626.79
Plunge Protection Team Indicator + 6.09, on an “OFF”
DJIA 10 Day Advance/Decline Indicator – 429.5 on a Sell
NYSE New Highs 47 New Lows 248
Today’s Technology NDX Market Comments:
The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicatorsgenerated a Sell signal Thursday, October 4th, 2018, and remain there October 9th, 2018. The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on October 4th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal on October 4th, 2018 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered aSell signal on October 4th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal.
The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Short positions signal Thursday, October 4th and remains there October 9th. On Tuesday October 9th, Demand Power fell 1 to 396, while Supply Pressure flat at 434, telling us the rise was weak.
The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Sell signal October 4th, 2018, and needs to rise above positive + 5.0 for a new Buy. It rose to negative -13.8 on Tuesday, October 9th.
NDX PPI Up 1 to 247.47 On a Sell
NDX 30 Day Stochastic Fast 21.43 Slow 30.00 On a Sell
NDX 14 Day Stochastic Fast 10.71 Slow 23.33 On a Sell
NDX 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator -13.8 On a Sell
NDX Demand Power Fell 1 to 396, Supply Pressure Flat at 434 Sell
RUT PPI Fell 1 to 173.83 on a Sell
RUT 10 Day Advance/Decline Line Indicator – 350.3 On a Sell
Today’s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments:
Our HUI key trend-finder indicators moved to a Sideways signal October 4th, 2018.
HUI PPI Fell 1 to + 154.62, on a Buy
HUI 30 Day Stochastic Fast 25.00, Slow 37.22 on a Sell
HUI Demand Power Fell 5 to 395; Supply Pressure Up 4 to 409, Sell